The Measurement And Analysis Of Regional Financial Cycle And Economic Cycle

In this paper,we have made an empirically study about the regional financial cycle and economic cycle.Based on the concept of financial cycle proposed by relevant researchers at home and abroad,this paper draws on the data published by the Wind database and the National Bureau of Statistics website to extract the financial cycle and economic cycle index of 31 provinces and cities in China,and finds the provinces of China.The financial cycle spans longer than the actual economic cycle and conforms to the general rules of the international financial cycle.Further analyzing the financial cycle trends and economic cycle trends,it is found that the provinces in the upward stage of the financial cycle under the current economic and financial operating conditions are only Shanxi,Chongqing,Ningxia and Xinjiang,and the remaining provinces are in the downward or slowing phase;the economic cycle is even more All provinces are in a down or slowing phase,and the number of provinces in the up phase is zero.Although it is only a simple result obtained through preliminary observations,it is undoubtedly a worrying phenomenon.In the context of the three-phase superposition of China's economy entering a new normal,compared with the implementation of the "four trillion" plan in 2008,The downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.Taking Guangdong,Shandong and Jiangsu as examples,the financial cycle and the economic cycle are compared and analyzed,and the relationship between the financial cycle and the economic cycle is initially understood,and a preliminary understanding of the financial cycle differences between the provinces is given.According to the statistical analysis of the financial cycle and the economic cycle,the inter-provincial cycle consistency index,regional convergence index and overall convergence index were calculated.It was found that the direct consistency between the financial cycle and the economic cycle was not high,but the inter-provincial financial cycle Highly consistent,the peaks of the financial cycle in most provinces and the time points at the bottom of the valley are different,but the financial cycles of individual provinces such as Beijing and Guangdong are more synchronized.The economic cycle is also relatively consistent but the consistency is slightly weaker than the financial cycle because the cycle of the economic cycle is more frequent and the cycle is shorter.Further research found that when the three regions of East,Central and West are divided,the overall consistency of the financial cycle and the economic cycle will increase.In view of the current situation of different provinces and cities at different stages of the financial and economic cycle,this paper will conduct an empirical study based on measurement methods in the next chapter,using the measured financial cycle and economic cycle data to verify the correlation between the financial cycle and the economic cycle.This paper also confirms the interaction between financial cycle and economic cycle through the PVAR model,and studies the prediction effect of the financial cycle on the actual economic cycle decline by constructing the Probit model.The research results show that the financial cycle and the economic cycle have significant mutual influences.The financial cycle has a significant positive impact on the economic cycle during the first to the tenth quarters.The degree of influence increases first and then decreases.zero.In addition,the financial cycle also has a good predictive ability for the economic downturn.No matter which kind of synthetic method obtains the financial cycle index,its decline will be accompanied by a significant increase in the probability of economic downturn,which can be used as an analysis of the "financial-economic" cycle correlation mechanism.Good early warning indicators for economic downside predictions.In addition,the financial cycle of the central region has the most significant forecasting ability for the economic downturn,followed by the eastern region,while the western region is not significant,indicating that there is a certain regional difference in the "financial-economic" cycle correlation mechanism.It is weak,which is related to the relatively backward development of economic and financial development in the region.Finally,the paper summarizes the full text and proposes relevant policy recommendations for the staged differences in the financial and economic cycles of the provinces.