| Since the 21 st century,China's economic growth has grown steadily.Real estate,as a pillar industry of the national economy,has gone through a splendid decade.In the past decade,housing prices have generally risen across the country,attracting a large number of people's attention.In recent years,the status of the national central city in Zhengzhou has become increasingly significant,the city's value has been continuously rising,and the price of housing has jumped.This has caused the government departments to attach great importance to it and has introduced a series of restrictions on purchases,limited loans,restrictions on sales,and restrictions on prices.After the policy,house prices have eased somewhat,but they are still rising steadily.The discussion about the housing price deviation in Zhengzhou City has been heard.Therefore,the current research on the deviation of housing prices and values based on the imbalance of the supply structure structure constitutes the starting point and the end result of this study.Whether the housing price deviates from the government is the theoretical basis for formulating the price adjustment policy.The basic value of real estate reflects the intrinsic value of real estate as a fixed asset,and it is also the theoretical price determined by supply and demand in a balanced market.The deviation between the market price of the house and the basic value is the deviation of the house price from the value.The smaller the difference,the lower the degree of deviation between the price of the house and the value of the house.On the contrary,the higher the degree of deviation of the price of the house from the value.In method selection,the use of a regression method based on basic economic factors,forecasting the trend of housing prices based on the supply and demand relationship of residential products and various factors affecting the relationship between supply and demand,this method can be used to comprehensively analyze the medium and long-term trends of price changes.Study the root causes of price changes and give reasonable opinions on macroeconomic development.Through the regression of the empirical model,it is possible to determine the value of houses,compare them with market prices,verify the existence of house price deviations,and also identify the specific impact of individual economic factors on housing prices and values,and better reflect the relationship between supply and demand.In data selection,select the data for the ten years from 2008 to 2017 to analyze and calculate.Most of the data come from official data,but due to its controversial citation effect,the official data and CRIC online data have been combined to serve as basic data for calculating house price deviations and to increase the degree of data response to the market.reasonable.The main content is from the perspective of the imbalance of supply structure,combing the factors that cause changes in the price of housing,and performing regression calculations on house prices.According to the most influential residential land transaction costs,real estate development investment,residential transaction area,population,per capita GDP,urban residents disposable income of six factors,the value of residential foundations,and ultimately with the market price,compared to the calendar year The degree of house price deviation determines the deviation between the price of the house and the actual value.Finally,it rationally allocates the land supply structure,improves the efficiency of land use,establishes a variety of housing supply types,promotes the construction of affordable housing and leased housing,and the real estate tax system falls into place.Various aspects put forward reasonable suggestions for stabilizing house prices and promote long-term and healthy development of the residential real estate market.The findings of this paper are as follows:(1)The impact of land factors on the long-term real estate market is more prominent;factors such as real estate investment,population,and per capita income affect short-term market prices.The scarcity of land in Zhengzhou City,innovation of land utilization,and revitalization of land stocks have become the focus of future regulation.(2)The degree of house price deviation in Zhengzhou City is viewed from the perspective of supply.The degree of deviation has decreased or increased with the policy adjustments in previous years.In the four years of 2012,2014,2015,and 2016,the deviation of house prices is not obvious.This is because the bright increase in land transactions makes up for the increase in housing prices caused by the imbalance in supply and demand in the market,and in other lands.In the more adequate years of reserves,real estate values all showed a deviation of more than 10%.In 2017,there was a deviation of 14.6% in the housing prices in Zhengzhou City.This result may continue to rise steadily under the influence of many factors.Therefore,it is necessary to Be wary of the risk of market speculation caused by this deviation.(3)According to the analysis of the deviation of residential prices,it is found that the establishment of a long-term housing mechanism can not be delayed.To control the housing price deviation caused by the imbalance of supply structure,it is necessary not only to increase the long-term supply of public rental housing and long-term rental housing,but also to require real estate companies.Change the mode of development,increase economic efficiency,increase the availability of residential housing supply in the context of a full understanding of the market,and reduce the large number of housing vacancy rates caused by speculative factors.The innovation of this article:(1)In theoretical research,there are few theories on the direct study of housing prices and values in existing literature studies,and there is very little correlation between supply structural imbalances and residential price deviations.On the basis of reading a large amount of literature,the relationship between supply structure imbalance and house price deviation was established,and the economy was basically faced with the impact of housing prices,and the factors affecting the changes in housing prices were obtained.(2)In the future development strategy of residential real estate,this paper calculates the deviation of housing prices in Zhengzhou City from the calculation of the deviation of residential prices in Zhengzhou City,and determines the impact of the degree of deviation on the residential real estate market.The city and even the national housing value measurement methods provide reference. |
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