A Study Of Regional Differences In The Impact Of Interest Rates And Credit Policies On The Residential Market

China's regional economic development is uneven,the regional characteristics of the real estate market is significant.When discussing effect of the monetary policy on the real estate market regulation,a regional perspective study is necessary.From the residential market demand,supply,price point of view,this article use the economic theory of the non-neutral monetary policy,the monetary policy asymmetry effect,monetary policy transmission mechanism,the real estate market in the fourth quadrant model as the basis of theoretical analysis.And select the country's 35cities' data as sample from 1999 to 2013,dividing into first second and third tier city using panel data and error correction model to empirical studies about different regional affect of the interest rate and the credit policy on the residential market.Finally,some suggestions for the residential market regulation.The empirical results show that the interest rate,credit policy has an different impact on housing market demand,supply and price of each tier city.First,housing demand.(1)the long term,the impact coefficient of interest rate on housing demand is negative and significant,the greatest impact on the first tier city;the impact of personal mortgage loans on housing demand is positive and significant,a greater support impact on first second tier city;the loan balance of financial mechanism is not significant.(2)the short term,the impact of interest rate on housing demand of each tier city is negative and significant,the maximum effect on first tier city;the influence coefficient of individual mortgage is positive,the affect of first and second tier city is large and significant;effect of the loan balance of financial institutions on demand of the first and second tier city is positive,the influence of first tier city is bigger and significant;the cumulative effect of the interest rate and the credit policy is not significant;The first tier city returning to the equilibrium level is the fastest,the slowest is the third tier city.Second,housing supply.The long term:(1)the coefficient of the impact of interestrate on residential investment of each tier city is negative,the influence of second tier city is bigger and significant;the coefficient of influence of the credit policy on investment is positive and significant.Among them,domestic loans has the greatest impact on residential investment of the second tier city,smilar influence of the balance of loans from financial institutions.(2)the coefficient of the impact of interest rate on residential construction area of first and second tier city is positive,effect on first tier city is larger and significant;the influence of the credit policy on the residential construction area is positive and significant.Among them,the domestic loans has the greatest impact on the third tier city.The loan balance of financial institutions has the greatest impact on residential construction area of first tier city.(3)the influence of interest rate on housing completion area of first and second tier city is positive;the influence of domestic loans on the completion of the residential area is positive,the bigger and significant influence on first tier city.The loan balance of financial institutions has biggest effect on completion area of the first tier city.The short term:(1)the coefficient of influence of interest rate on housing investment is positive and significant,the largest effect on the third tier city;the effect of credit policy on residential investment is large and significant,especially on the second or third tier city;the cumulative effect of the interest rate and the credit policy is significant;the speed of returning to a balanced level,the fastest is first tier city,slowest is second tier city.(2)the influence coefficient of the interest rate is positive and significant on residential construction area,the largest effect on the third tier city;the domestic loans has a larger support effect on construction area of second or third tier city;the cumulative effect of the credit policy,interest rate policy is not significant;the speed of each tier city of residential construction area returning to a balanced level,the fastest is first tier city,second tier city is the slowest.(3)the coefficient of impact of interest rate on completion of the residential area of the first and second tier city is positive,the effect of the first tier city is larger and significant;support effect of credit policy is significant on completion of the residential area of first and second tier city;the cumulative effect of the interest rate,the credit policy is not significant;the speed of completion of the residential area returning to a balanced level after the shortterm fluctuations,first tier city is the fastest,second tier city is slowest.Third,residential price.(1)the long term,impact of the interest rate on housing price is positive,the largest and significant influence on first tier city;effect of the credit policy is largest and significant on first tier city;the total real estate loans has a positive effect on the price,impact of the loan balance of financial institutions on housing price is negative.(2)the short term,the impact of interest rate on housing prices is not significant,negative impact on the first and third tier city;the impact of the credit policy overall on housing price is significant,the influence coefficient of the total real estate loans on housing price is positive,bigger and significant effect on the second or thrird tier city.The effect of the balance of loans from financial institutions on housing price is negative and significant,the largest effect on first tier city;the cumulative effect of the interest rate and the loan balance of financial institutions is not significant,the cumulative effect of the real estate loans is remarkable;the speed of residential price returning a balanced level,the fastest is the first tier city,second tier city is the slowest.