Study On The Early Warning Of China's Dairy Industry Damage Of China New Zealand FTA And China Australian FTA

Dairy industry is a pillar industry for the development of modern agriculture,which is beneficial to improve the healthy body of the residents' dietary structure,and to promote the increase of farmers' income and reduce the gap between urban and rural areas.It is more conducive to the construction of a modern socialist country and a great cause of the great power of the people.China's dairy industry started late,the production cost of raw milk is relatively high,and the dairy production system,industrial system and operation system are not perfect,and the international competitiveness is insufficient.Under the trend of economic globalization and regional economic integration,China has increased its opening to the outside world and promoted the construction of bilateral free trade zone.The dependence of China's dairy industry on the external dependence is increasing,the impact of import impact is increasing,and the problem of industrial security has attracted much attention.China signed bilateral free trade agreements with New Zealand and Australia in 2008 and 2015.The dairy industry in new Australia has strong international competitiveness.After the establishment of the free trade area,China's dairy imports have increased sharply in the model of dairy trade tax reduction,the import land is concentrated and the trigger time is constantly ahead of time.China's import of new Australian dairy products trade share is more than 50%,and new Australia has become the main source of Chinese dairy products.This shows that the impact of China's dairy industry is mainly from New Zealand and Australia.Is the safety of China's dairy industry damaged? How much is the damage? These problems need to be solved urgently.This study focuses on the early warning of industrial damage to China's dairy industry in the new Australia free trade area.Based on the theory of industrial damage,the theory of regional economic integration,the WTO anti dumping criteria and the principle of judging the damage of dairy industry in the free trade agreement,the established damage index system of dairy industry in China.The target linear function is used to construct the early warning model of China's dairy industry damage,and calculate the comprehensive index of the damage to China's milk industry in 2008-2015,and analyze the international impact transmission mechanism,mainly to study the international transmission mechanism of the price fluctuation of raw milk in New Zealand,which is the cause and effect of international impact.It provides the basis for confirmation,and then uses the BP neural network model to predict the comprehensive index of the damage to China's dairy industry in 2016-2020,and prejudges the threat of dairy industry damage in China.The research shows that China's dairy industry is in a dangerous state in addition to 2009,2012 and 2014,and the development of Chinese dairy industry in other years is in a safe state.However,China's dairy industry is still under the impact of New Zealand dairy industry because of its large trade base.According to the forecast,China's dairy industry will still be affected by the New Zealand dairy industry after 2015,but the margin is getting smaller.This is due to the establishment of the China Australia Trade Zone,the Chinese dairy trade is transferred to Australia.New Zealand has been seized by Australia in some dairy markets in China,and Australian dairy industry has played a certain counterbalance to New Zealand dairy industry,weakening China's dependence on New Zealand dairy products.The China New Zealand free trade area has a long-term and stable impact on the price of fresh milk in China,the transmission is smooth and the transmission islinked and asymmetric.In addition to the threat of damage to China's dairy industry in Australia in 2014,China's dairy industry in the rest of the year is in a state of security,and the trade potential of China and Australia is huge.Especially after the entry into force of the FTA in 2015.According to the forecast,the comprehensive index of industrial damage to China's dairy industry is declining after 2015,and the threat is on the rise,especially in the liquid milk industry,which should be paid enough attention.