The Measurement And The Early-warning Of The Dairy Industrial Injury In China

Dairy industry is an important branch of China's economic industry and is closely related to national life.By the development of diary industry,the living quality of the residents and the nutritional diet of the residents in our country will be improved,the agricultural structure of our country will be optimized,the benefit of agricultural products and the economic income of the farmers will be increased.Since China's entry into the WTO,the international trade degree of dairy products has been increased and the import speed of dairy products has been accelerated,which not only the increasing demand of dairy products in our country is reflected,but also the strong competitiveness of dairy products abroad,and also the advantages of foreign dairy products in trade policy.Because of the lack of strict regulation on dairy products import in China,the import of dairy products has increased significantly in recent years.Industrial damage to China's dairy industry has been caused by the large import of dairy products.What is the safe state of China's dairy industry in the next few years?Therefore,these questions was mainly analyzed and answered.Firstly,the import trade of dairy products and the factors that affect the import of dairy products were analyzed,the above two points with the actual situation were combined,and the reasons and problems of the increase of the import of dairy products were focused on.Secondly,an evaluation model for the damage extent of dairy industry in China was established and the damage extent of domestic dairy industry was warned.By combining the industrial damage index system with the actual situation of dairy products,the evaluation index system of the damage range of dairy industry was created,and the analytic hierarchy process model was calculated based on the traditional industrial damage range.By the combination weight method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,entropy value method and grey relational analysis,the model was improved.The damage index of domestic dairy industry in the past2005-2016 years was caculated,and three kinds of weight assignment methods were compared.The results show that the subjective and objective assignment method is more reasonable.Then the damage of domestic dairy products was warned.Because the early warning of industrial damage and the extent of industrial damage areinseparable,it can be based on the domestic dairy industry damage calculation model,and the K-MEANS cluster can be used to get the early warning interval of the damage of dairy industry.Finally,the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction-BP neural network prediction model and the Markoff prediction model were used,the early warning grade of the dairy industry damage in China in 2018-2022 years was compared and predicted.The results showed that the domestic dairy products were basically in a light alarm for 2018-2022 years,which is a state of concern,but there is still the possibility of danger.