The Empirical Evaluation On The Trade Effect Of China-New Zealand Free Trade Area

Since the turning of the twentieth century,global economic integration has focused on the negotiation of WTO multilateral trade agreements.However,in the 1990 s,further and deeper trade-liberalization talks under WTO framework were almost at a standstill.Regional economic integration therefore has acted as an alternative form of international multilateral trade since then and displayed strong development momentum with a wave of regional economic integration spreading all over the world.Regional economic integration has just started in China and at present,there are only thirteen FTA agreements being signed."China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement" is not only the first comprehensive free trade agreement signed by China and other country covering trade in goods,trade in services,investment and other areas,but also it is the first time China signed the first free trade agreement with the developed countries.Since the China-Singapore FTA agreement going into effect on October 1,2008,it has been more than seven years.What the influence of signing this agreement for on China's economic effects is on earth is the main contents of this paper.First of all,this paper describes the reasons for the establishment of Sino-Singapore FTA and the present situation of China-Singapore FTA.After the establishment of the China-Singapore FTA,the tariffs on China-New Zealand trade products have been declining year by year.It has greatly promoted the economic and trade cooperation between China and Singapore.The growth rate of trade between China and New Zealand has been greatly improved.China has become New Zealand's largest trading partner replacing Australia.Subsequently,the first model of trade gravity is established.The results show that the agreement of China-Singapore FTA's promoted the China's total foreign trade,but it is not remarkable,mainly because New Zealand is only the smaller partner country of China's foreign trade.By further constructing the trade model of dairy products,the effect of the tariffs on China-New Zealand Free Trade Area(FTA)is obtained,which signifies the significant promotion of Sino-Singapore FTA trade.Building a third trade gravity model and assessing the economic effects of China-Singapore FTA.The export trade model is constructed and the export forecast value is simulated according to the model.By the change of the ratio of the export actual value and the forecast value,the evaluation result shows that the establishment of the free trade area has no remarkable effect on China's export trade potential.Finally,the conclusion and inspiration are given.After the completion of the Sino-Singapore Free Trade Area,the growth rate of Sino-Singapore trade is much higher than that of China's top five trade partners.The impact of China-Singapore FTA on China's total foreign trade is insignificant.It is mainly due to the fact that New Zealand's total foreign trade is too small compared to China,but the impact of the agreement of the China-Singapore FTA on the trade volume between new and specific industries such as the dairy industry is still very remarkable.