Empirical Research On The Influence Factors Of Housing Price Based On VAR Model

Since the abolition of the house distribution system in 1998,the real estate market has made great progress,and this industry has gradually become the mainstay of the national economy.It also has an influence on our livelihood.With the development of the real estate market,housing prices are also rising.Residential consumption accounts for an increasing proportion of residents' consumption.The rising rate of house prices is more high thanpercapita income,and a series of practical problems have pushed the real estate industry to the forefront of public opinion.Although the government has also introduced a series of policies to regulate the high housing prices.But the effect is not satisfactory.Under this background,this paper chooses Hefei,which is a representative new city,as the empirical research object,analyzes the influencing factors of the housing real estate price in Hefei.To find out the real cause of the abnormal growth of housing prices in Hefei and put forward some suggestions for the regulation and control,which has certain theoretical and practical significance for the healthy development of the real estate market in Hefei.Combining with the domestic and foreign related research results and the present situation of Hefei housing market,This paper makes a qualitative and quantitative study on the influencing factors of residential real estate price in Hefei.The grey correlation analysis between the factors and the housing price is carried out by using the collected data from 2007 to 2016.It is concluded that the correlation between housing price and housing investment,per capita disposable income and land transaction price in Hefei is higher than that in commercial housing sales area,GDP,consumer price index,population size,interest rate.In order to research the influence mechanism of housing real estate price deeply,this paper selects the relatively high correlation degree of housing investment to complete the annual investment,and the per capita disposable income.This three indexes of land transaction price are used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic change of housing price in Hefei According to the VAR model,impulse response function and other econometric tools,we found that the change of housing price in Hefei in the short term is relative to the annual completed investment of housing,the per capita disposable income,and so on.Changes in land transaction prices have a certain lag.But in the end,per capita disposable income and land transaction prices will all be driving up house prices.On the other hand,the fluctuation of housing investment and house price is positive correlation and then stable negative correlation.The variance decomposition results show that the biggest influence factor on housing price in Hefei is land transaction price.The second is the per capita disposable income and the annual completed investment.Finally,the rationality of the housing price level in Hefei is judged by using the indicator method,According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,we put advice from Four aspects,they are Land price,Investment of developers,Consumers purchase and Long-term mechanism for real estate market's development.