| The real estate industry is a pillar industry of China's economic development.It accounts for a large proportion of GDP,and has a nature of the mortgage.It has attracted the attention of investors because of its high yield and high risk.The financial crisis in 2008 exposed the problem that the real estate bubble might trigger systemic risks.In order to maintain the steady development on the financial systems in various countries and prevent financial risks from extending to the entire economy,the Basel Committee enacted the Basel Accord in 2010.China has also begun to set up a framework for macro-prudential supervision and listed real estate financial control as a priority.Based on the background of real estate development,this article analyze d the effects of real estate investment from the perspectives of promotion,extrusion,and risk,and sorted out the government's control measures and effects of them on the real estate market since 1998,and we also summarized the concepts of macro-prudential management proposed in recent years.This paper calculate d the annual real estate investment scale of non-real estate listed companies,and built a variable named “land investment intensity” in the model to describe the degree of involvement of enterprises in real estate investment,and analyzed the impacts of investment behavior on business performance.We also synthesized the changes of the real estate investment environment under the macro-prudential management,introduced the land price index and the growth rate of real estate development loans into the model,as a macro-prudential supervision factor to analyze the interaction between macro-prudential supervision and real estate investment behavior.The research results showed that the positive effect of real estate investment on the company was limited,and the improvement in the profitability and soundness of real estate development investment could only be realized in the short term—— it would put a negative effect on the corporate profits in the long term.At the same time,the effect of real estate investment was influenced by macro-prudential management: macro-prudential supervision advocated counter-cyclical adjustment of the real estate market,which meant tightening credit constraints and controlling the rising of land prices.In the short term,the lower the land price and the tighter the credit environment,the better the improvement effect of real estate investment.In the long run,the reduction in land price could ease the damage of real estate investment on corporate profits,while the tightening of the credit environment w ould promote real estate investment to undermine corporate profits.When the government uses macro-prudential tools to regulate the real estate market,it should find the right balance between steady growth and anti-foam.In addition,the prevention and control of systemic risks require coordination among various departments such as finance,land,finance,taxation,population,and market order.Therefore,based on the prediction of the market situation of the real estate industry in the future,this paper proposed suggestions for the macro-control of the real estate market: on the one hand,the government should implement differentiated macro-prudential management measures,allowing the real estate investment to return to rationality starting with the demand structure;on the other hand,it should promote coordination between macro-prudential management and other departments,and establish a common mechanism of information to timely prevent and control the systemic risks.At the same time,they should caution companies to carefully follow the investment boom and rationally plan their operations and development direction because letting capital flow into the physical industry was the way to live for them. |
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