Research On County Financial Risk Assessment And Spatial Pattern Evolution In Shandong Province

With the rapid development of economy and society,there is a strong correlation between different economic subjects and financial systems,which makes financial risks have more and more systematic and regional.The government has always attached great importance to the issue of financial risk and has repeatedly stressed the need to focus on the prevention of regional financial risks in major decisions.As an important subject and unit of macro-economic operation in China,county economy is of great significance to make a thorough study of the reasonable assessment of financial risk and pattern evolution.Many scholars at home and abroad have made a certain discussion on regional financial risks in terms of definitions,causes,infectious mechanisms,policy suggestions,etc.While the previous studies were mostly based on large economies such as countries,and the related research on county financial risk is still less.This paper takes Shandong Province as an example and makes a quantitative assessment of the county financial risk through the construction of a comprehensive index system,and analyzes the global financial crisis since the evolution of the pattern to provide a reference for relevant theory and policy research.In this paper,the author analyzes the status quo of financial risk in Shandong Province firstly,and finds out that the balance and proportion of non-performing loans in Shandong Province continued to rise in recent years.This phenomenon may lead to more serious financial risks.Therefore,the author selects the following seven variables,GDP growth rate,fiscal deficit rate,deposit-loan ratio,non-performing loan ratio,insurance depth,insurance density and industrial profit growth rate above scale,and uses them to assess the financial risk of 106 county-level units in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2014 through principal component analysis(PCA).The results shows that in 2008,most counties presented mid-high risk or high risk while the overall score of most counties declines with the passage of time.By 2014,most counties turned into medium and low risk.From the geographical distribution,the financial risk emerges a certain degree of agglomeration in space.The comprehensive scores of central and eastern Shandong is significantly lower than that in the west,and the comprehensive score of municipal districts is obviously lower than that of counties and prefecture-level cities.These results suggest that the financial system in the economically developed areas is also more advanced and the ability to resist risks is stronger.Spatial autocorrelation analysis of county financial risk is conducted in this research to further understand the spatial spillover effect of financial risk.According to the results of global spatial autocorrelation,there was a significant positive correlation in space from 2008 to 2014,except in 2013.The main reason for this outcome is that trade and finance are closely linked to each county.They develop together when the economic environment is good.When a crisis occurs,they share risks.After 2010,Moran's I dropped year by year,indicating that the spatial correlation between the counties began to weaken.This is mainly because after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States,the government,enterprises,banks and other financial institutions have taken a series of measures to improve financial supervision,strengthen risk control and the spread of financial risk is prevented by weakening the transmission of financial risk between regions.The local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that most counties are inconspicuousness types,while the notable ones are mostly HH and LL,which illustrates that there is a positive correlation between these counties and the surrounding areas.As time goes by,the significant county area also decreased year by year.In order to resolve and prevent financial risks,this paper gives policy recommendations from government,financial institutions and enterprises.The government should improve the system and strengthen the supervision.Financial institutions should improve the pre-loan audit mechanism and innovate the guarantee mode.Enterprises should enhance their integrity and strive to improve their scientific and technological content.