Study On County Agricultural Economic Disparities In GanSu Province Based On Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Regional economic disparity is an important topic in the research of geographyand economy, which impacts the economy development and social stability within aregion and a country. With entering the 21st century, when China has opened up moredoors to the outside world, especially with the ongoing proceeding of WesternDevelopment, Gansu province largely promotes and improves its infrastructure built,foreign investment, industrial adjustment and other aspects. While the regionaleconomic gaps in Gansu province becomes widened up, accelerating with theeconomic development, particularly the disparity of the intra-county economiesrepresented by agriculture.The subject of this dissertation is intra-county agricultural economies in Gansuprovince. All of counties in Gansu province, which is add up to 87, are chosen as theresearch units. With combinations of quantitative analysis and qualitative description,the establishment of evaluation indices system, measure indices including absolutedifferences and relative differences, and the application of principal componentanalysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the disparities in time evolution andspatial distribution of intra-county agricultural economies in Gansu province arerevealed.Taking the status quo of the development levels of intra-county agriculturaleconomies in Gansu province into consideration, multivariate statistical analysis ischosen, which consists of 11 representative evaluation indices. With the application ofprincipal component analysis, three of them are main factors that are intensiveagricultural economy index, extensive agricultural economy index and income index.Composite scores were calculated based on weights and main factors scores, in orderto avoid the unbalance of single index.Based on calculation of standard deviations and coefficients of variance on intracountyagricultural economies in Gansu province within 1997-2007, it is found thatthere are two stages, which is bounded at 2001,and the prior stage is a rise stage, whilethe latter one is decline that make it inverted U-shape pattern. Main reasons thatinclude the agricultural infrastructure disparity, unequal investment and agriculturalcomparative advantage forfeiture were elicited to elucidate this phenomenon. After2000 years, with the implementation of agriculture-favoring policies supported bygovernment, the gaps on the development levels of agricultural economies have beennarrowed down. Cross-sectional data of 2007 were chosen, and then calculated by clusteringanalysis, we elicit that it is obvious of polarization in intra-county agriculturaleconomies in Gansu province. What is the main distribution feature is that it is high inthe western part of Gansu province, while relative low in the eastern part, similarly,high in north and low in south., thus it shows Four-Axis distribution spatially.Based on the spatial autocorrelation theory, we elicit that the intra-countyagricultural economies in Gansu province is highly correlated, represented by Hexiarea as advanced agricultural region, in contrast to Gannan and Longnan as thebackward agricultural regions. In spite of the enhancement of investment andimprovement of location condition, the agricultural economies disparity has beenminimized, but without sufficient inter-regional cooperation, this disparity is not likelyto be repaired in several years.