Research On China's Sovereign Debt Risk Measurement,Infection And Early Warning

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the international debt crisis has occurred frequently and countries in crisis have suffered major losses.The sovereign debt crisis has exacerbated the fragility of the entire financial system.Global economies have adopted fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic recovery and prevent the economies of various economies from falling drastically.The sovereign debt risk is a major factor affecting regional economic development and financial stability.Any sovereign debt crisis will likely trigger a new round of global financial crisis.On May 24,2017,Moody's lowered its sovereign credit rating for the first time.It is expected that China's economic growth will continue to slow down in the future.However,as far as China's current debt problem is concerned,the prevention of sovereign debt risks and the steady development of the Chinese economy are also a key issue.This paper adopts literature research method,induction analysis method,and qualitative and quantitative methods to study China's sovereign debt risk situation.First,a comprehensive overview of the domestic and foreign research status of sovereign debt risk is provided.Then from the perspective of debt risk of sovereign countries,the concept,characteristics,causes and impacts of sovereign debt risk are distinguished,and indicators of China's sovereign debt are analyzed.Next,we introduce the most widely used method of sovereign debt risk analysis(sovereign credit rating method,contingent rights analysis method based on Morton model,risk-based CoVaR model,debt risk warning model),and A qualitative and quantitative comparative analysis of them.The last part selects three models and analyzes China's sovereign debt risk from different perspectives:(1)Using the method of contingent claims analysis to calculate China's sovereign risk size,and by conducting comparative analysis with the rating results of sovereign rating agencies,we find that China The overall debt risk is within the controllable range,and the overall economic situation tends to be good;(2)The use of the CoVaR model to fit the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in the United States and Japan on China's sovereign debt risk due to the calculation A relatively small ?CoVaR value means that the United States and Japan have a relatively small impact on China's sovereign debt;(3)The use of binary Logit regression to measure the size of China's sovereign debt risk,and the calculated sovereignty of China The risk value is relatively small,so China's sovereign debt risk is relatively small,and China's overall sovereign debt is still in a relatively safe environment.The possibility of default risk in the short term is relatively small.The research on the methods of sovereign debt risk not only can sort out the domestic and foreign models of measuring sovereign debt risk,but also understand and clarify the size of China's sovereign debt risk and play a positive role in monitoring and preventing the occurrence of sovereign debt crisis in China.