An Early-warning Study Of Sovereign Debt Crisis

In the contemporary international financial history, the sovereign debt crisis occurred frequently as a unique form of expression of the financial crisis. Recent years, the sovereign debt crisis happened in Dubai, Greece and Spain's sovereign debt crisis not only had strong destructive effects on their own economics, societies and politics, but also spreaded to other countries.It is the key to ensure the sustainable development of national economy by strengthening the sovereign debt crisis early warning and prevention. The crisis countries' selection and collocation of aid policy will largely reduce the destructive or aggravate the sovereign debt crisis. So it is extremely urgent to make further research into the causes, patterns and early warning of the sovereign debt crisis under the background of globalization. Although debt crisis in China has not happened yet, the potential financial risk and debt risk cannot be ignored. So this article chose data from Brazil, Mexico and Argentina from Latin American, which are three developing countries like China, to study the occurrence rules and warning means of the sovereign debt crisis.First this paper studied sovereign debt crisis systematically starting from the research on the definition, developing steps to causes and effects under the actual situation.Secondly this paper studied the debt crisis early warning indicators system. The research is divided into three aspects: first was the selection basis of debt crisis early warning indicators; second is the content of the debt crisis early warning indicators; third is the mainly large diversity of the early warning indicators in the event of crisis.And then an empirical analysis of the debt crisis early warning was made in this paper. According to the first internationally recognized standards and interval estimation, this paper established the debt crisis early warning model to determine the threshold of every indicator. The risk contribution value of each indicator was determined by the already threshold. Then I used the binary Logistic model to select the parameters of the indicator risk contribution and weighted. Finally I determined the overall risk by various indicators of risk contribution value and weight.At the end of the paper the foreign debt crisis early warning and management policies were introduced, which were used as the reference of China's debt crisis warning policy. And the Chinese national debt crisis early warning and prevention countermeasures were studied. According to the early warning model for the debts applied to our country and the analysis of the relevant indicators, I put forward to establish a special debt management organization and make some suggestions to perfect early crisis warning system.