The Study On The Construction Of The Eurozone’s Sovereign Debt Crisis Early Warning Model

The euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, is a special result of optimum currency area under the operating mechanism, a release as well as pre accumulation problems, both the role of internal factors, but also by the influence of external factors. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, summed up the four major issues in the euro area on operation mechanism under the current face, namely "decentralized fiscal and currency", "the contradiction of capital circulation smoke escape" problem, "individual optimal and the optimal overall" and "the contradiction between the economic cycle heterogeneity" the problem. Influenced by these four problems, the euro area as a whole and members of the individual economic are all in a state of "hidden imbalances". In other words, the euro zone in the two aspects of the whole and the individual accumulation of risk, with the passage of time, more and more unstable, the risk of the outbreak of the crisis finally through the way to release the early accumulation, a form of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone risk only release. In this paper, several problems in facing the euro area as the starting point, each member between macroeconomic "differences" as the core, constructed the measurement of the euro zone members risk levels of NEO-OCA index. The NEO-OCA index includes two parts, respectively is:(1) measure the euro zone as a whole systemic risk "systemic risk index", this risk will lead to the increase of all members of the uncertainty of measurement;(2) members of non system risk "non system risk index", this risk will only lead to an increase in member countries with the uncertainty. When the eurozone "systemic risk" index significantly increased compared with the previous, the euro zone will be extremely unstable, at this time, "non system risk index" higher members will likely to lead to the outbreak of the crisis. On this basis, the data for members of the euro zone is treated, the euro zone’s NEO-OCA index calculation, has carried on the analysis to the euro area according to the reality, based on validation of NEO-OCA index effectiveness, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis into "economic imbalance caused by the crisis" and "accidental shock and the market is expected to rise to two kinds of crisis". Five heavily indebted countries of the debt crisis in Europe, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy debt crisis belongs to "the economic imbalance caused by the crisis, and the Irish debt crisis is" incidental shock and the market is expected to trigger a crisis ". Further, this paper will combine the NEO-OCA index and Logistic model, are divided into four kinds of regression models for the European debt crisis data fitting, found that NEO-OCA index can not only reflect the period of the crisis, but also can advance a period of crisis forecast. Without considering the " occasional shock " of the case, the NEO-OCA index with Logistic model can predict the " economic imbalance caused by the crisis ahead of a period, the predicted results correct rate reached 97.2%; in considering the " occasional shock " of the case, the NEO-OCA index with Logistic model can also predict the one period ahead " economic imbalances crisis " and " accidental shock and the market is expected to trigger a crisis ", the prediction result is correct rate reached 94.2%. Finally, the analysis of the internal problems and the euro area based on NEO-OCA index, this paper also summarizes the conclusion and proposed the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.