Simulation Of Land Use Change In Coastal Area Of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Based On CLUMondo Model

This study uses the coastal area of Guangxi Beibu Gulf as a research object,remote sensing imagery in 2005 and 2015 as data sources.Combining quantitative analysis with the CLUMondo model,we studied the spatial pattern changes and driving mechanisms of land use/coverage in the Beibu Gulf coastal area from 2005 to 2015.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:Reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of land use in the study area.In this study,the spatial-temporal change of land use patterns in coastal areas of Guangxi Beibu Gulf from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed using land use dynamics and land use/cover change transfer matrix systems.The study found that the largest amount of change in construction land within the region was mainly due to the fact that the country' s strategic positioning of the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has accelerated the socio-economic development of the study area.(1)Construct a driving index system for land use change in the study area.According to the specific characteristics of the study area,select the internal driving factor and the external driving factor.Through the canonical correlation analysis,the two major driving factors affecting land use change,the total industrial output value and the total grain output,were chosen as external driving factors,and were input into the model together with the internal driving factors to simulate.(2)The simulation predicts land use/coverage data for 2030.The 2015 land use/cover data modeled by the CLUMondo model is compared with the 2015 remote sensing image interpretation results.Finally,the land use/coverage under the forest protection scenario in 2030 was simulated and forecasted.Through simulation,it has been found that the cultivated land in the study area has been significantly reduced,and construction land has increased greatly.(3)Propose sustainable development policy recommendations.The coastal areas of the Beibu Gulf are confronted with the conflicts between the development and protection of nature reserves,serious shortages of ecological and environmental protection inputs,and increased urbanization and ecological and environmental pressures.In order to realize the sustainable land use in the study area,this study gives policy recommendations from the aspects of constructing the compensation mechanism for cultivated land,strengthening the protection of wetlands,developing ecotourism,accelerating the transformation of the marine economy,and coordinating the unified planning.