Simulation Of Land Use Change In Hengduan Mountain Area Based On CLUMondo Model

Land use change has led to changes in the regional environment,which in turn affects changes in the global environment.Therefore,it is particularly important to study land use/cover change.Hengduan Mountain is located in southwestern China and is rich in natural resources.Land use changes in the region will directly or indirectly lead to corresponding changes in the ecological environment of Hengduan Mountains,clarify the law of land use change in Hengduan Mountains,clarify the causes and processes of land use change,and predict the future spatial pattern of land use for in-depth understanding and understanding.It is essential to explain the environmental effects and driving mechanisms of the dynamic changes of the land system in the Hengduan Mountains.This paper takes the Hengduan Mountains as the research object,and obtains the land use data of the study area by interpreting the 30 m remote sensing images of Landsat5 and Landsat8 in 2000 and 2015.Combined with ArcGIS technology,the spatial pattern change characteristics of land use in the study area from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed.The CLUMondo model was used to carry out regression analysis of driving factors,so as to screen out the driving factors with the greatest correlation with each region.Based on the real land use data in 2015,three different scenarios were constructed to predict the spatial distribution of land use in Hengduan Mountains in 2030.The main contents are:1.By analyzing the land use transfer situation in Hengduan Mountains from 2000 to 2015,it is concluded that the main types of land use change in the study area are: cultivated land,forest land and grassland.The conversion direction of cultivated land is construction land,forest land and grassland;the grassland is mainly converted into forest land;the newly added water area is mostly converted from grassland and forest land;the conversion of unused land is more obvious,mainly converted to grassland;Overall improvement.2.According to the relevant principle of driving factor selection,20 driving factors are selected firstly,and the CLUMondo model is used to carry out regression analysis on the driving factors of primary selection,and the driving factors with collinearity greater than 0.8 are removed.Based on this,the driving factors and local types are calculated.Correlation,screen out the driving factors that are most relevant to each type of land.3.According to the characteristics of land use change in Hengduan Mountain and the demand of CLUMondo model,the land use data of 2015 was simulated based on the data of land use in Hengduan Mountains in 2000,and compared with the real value.The Kappa value of the simulation result was verified by MCK platform.0.817,the results show that the CLUMondo model has a good adaptability to the study of land use change in Hengduan Mountains.4.Constructing three scenarios of natural trends,new urbanization and ecological protection,and simulating the land use change in Hengduan Mountains in 2030.The results showed that the unutilized land and cultivated land showed a decreasing trend under various scenarios,and the grassland and forest land showed an increasing trend.In the natural trend situation,the unused land and cultivated land are decreasing,and the water area is basically unchanged.In the new urbanization situation,due to the increase in the growth rate of construction land in the scenario setting,the construction land in the simulation results has increased significantly.In the context of ecological protection,the unused land and cultivated land are decreasing,and the construction land is basically unchanged.Due to the setting of scenes and the constraints of nature reserves,ecological land such as grassland,woodland and waters has increased significantly.