Research On The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Export Trade

Exchange rate is the key factor that causes the change of a country's export trade.With the progress of RMB exchange rate reform and the deepening of internationalization,RMB exchange rate appreciation is obvious and frequent,and it is more vulnerable to the influence of international politics and economy.This also increases the exchange rate risk of China's export trade enterprises.Therefore,the impact of RMB exchange rate change on China's export trade is worth studying.This paper divides export trade into export price and export trade proportion from the structural perspective,so as to study the influence of RMB exchange rate change on these two dimensions.Therefore,the research focus of this paper includes :(1)constructing the pricing behavior model of manufacturers and empirically analyzing the price pass-through effect of RMB exchange rate.Using VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition to parse the short-term impact and the influence of the longterm equilibrium.(2)the utility function to construct model based on producers and consumers,mainly choose 17 major trading partners of our country(region)for panel data empirical test,discusses the RMB exchange rate change on the influence of the proportion of export trade.Through research,the following conclusions are drawn :(1)RMB exchange rate change has incomplete transmission effect on export price.RMB appreciation cannot effectively solve China's huge trade surplus.Faced with the adverse change of exchange rate,it is difficult for China's export enterprises to pass it on by raising export prices.(2)Appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the proportion of the more developed the country's exports,and increase the proportion of the exports of developing countries,China's export market structure is developed to the direction of diversification.But the exchange rate is too volatile for export trade.China should encourage export enterprises to develop innovatively and enhance market competitiveness while avoiding exchange rate risks,so as to achieve long-term stable development of export trade.