Research On The Influencing Factors Of Short-term International Capital Flow In China

In 2008,following the collapse of the Lehman Brothers,the United States broke out in the financial crisis and GDP shrank rapidly.It was the lowest in 50 years.During this period,hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs every month in the United States.After that,the subprime mortgage crisis spread rapidly,resulting in a global scale.the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis has made a very far-reaching impact on China's capital flows.the United States introduced a quantitative easing policy.The quantitative easing policy lasted for six years.During this period,liquidity was greatly released.There will also be spillover effects that will cause cross-border capital inflows in other countries,affecting the economies of emerging market countries.This article is to use empirical analysis research methods in this context,to explore the factors affecting the country's cross-border capital flows in the context of quantitative easing,and finally put forward relevant policy recommendations.In the context of U.S.monetary policy,the article use the period from January 2008 to December 2017 as the study sample interval to examine the main reasons affecting the flow of international short-term capital in China.The processing is done by Eviews8.0 software.By establishing a time series econometric model for analysis,the unit root test is first performed on the variables to satisfy the same-order stationary variables and cointegration tests are performed.Then the long-term stable equilibrium change relationship between variables is determined.subsequently,a Granger test is performed by establishing a VAR model.The causal relationship between variables is tested,and finally the dynamic effects of fluctuations between variables are analyzed by the impulse response function and variance decomposition.After testing,it is believed that the exchange rate ?interest rate and real estate yield have a more significant impact on the flow of short-term international capital.