The Measurement Of Agricultural Modernization Level In Hubei Province And Empirical Research On Its Influencing Factors

In October 2017,the communist party of China(CPC)' s report on the 19th People' Congress proposed that the implementation of the strategy of village rejuvenation must insist on giving priority to the development of agriculture a.nd rural areas and accelerating the advancement of agricultural modernization.As one of China' s 13 main grain producing areas,Hubei Province has achieved a series of successes in agricultural development in recent years.It has created"11 consecutive increase" achievements,increased yields,expanded area,and increased capacity for dealing with natural disasters.Therefore,recognizing the current status of agricultural modernization development in Hubei Province,analyzing its development characteristics,and proposing measures to improve the current level of agricultural modernization in Hubei Province are of great practical significance.This article has collected data on agricultural development in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2015 extensively,and has constructed a set of indicators to evaluate the level of agricultural modernization in Hubei Province.Then the factor analysis method,variation coefficient method,and linear weighting method were used to measure the development of the level of agricultural modernization in the province in the past 11 years,made clear the agricultural modernization stage of Hubei province,analyzed the characteristics of Hubei's agricultural modernization process.In the empirical part,based on the results from the previous chapter,the paper constructed a multivariate regression system,VAR model,which includes Hubei' s agricultural modernization level,the comprehensive index of agricultural productivity,and the comprehensive index of agricultural economic relationship,and then carried out an empirical analysis by the method of impulse response and variance analysis.Through analysis,the main conclusions made from this paper are:(1)From 2005 to 2015,the level of agricultural modernization in Hubei Province has been increasing year by year.From 2005 to 2008,Hubei Province is still in the phase of unfinished agricultural modernization,and it is preliminary from 2009 to 2012.In the realization phase,Hubei Province basically realized agricultural modernization in 2013-2015.(2)The improvement of the level of agricultural modernization in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2015 was mainly due to the increase in the level of agricultural productivity.The increase in its growth rate was mainly due to the improvement of agricultural production conditions.(3)The average annual growth rate of the modernization level of agricultural production conditions in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2015 was mainly due to the change in the internal composition of the agricultural sector,that is,the proportion of pure production decreased,and the proportion of processing and service industries increased.(4)The effect of the comprehensive index of agricultural productivity on the level of agricultural modernization is long but not obvious in the short term,and the effect of the comprehensive index of agricultural economic relations on the level of agricultural modernization is evident in the short term but short in duration.(5)the comprehensive index of agricultural productivity seems to have a greater impact on agricultural modernization than the comprehensive index of agricultural economic relations,and the comprehensive index of agricultural economic relationship is more susceptible to the development of agricultural modernization.(6)In the long run,there is a mutual promotion(or mutual restraint)among the three parties.In the short term,the three parties have a competing resource relationship.