| The development of the regional housing market can directly affect the lives of the people,it also has a crucial role in the stability of the national economy.Jiangxi province,as an important part of Yangtze River economic belt,whose economic development is related to the state's macro-control policy in many respects.For the part of housing market's development,there is a quick growth in the last decade.And with that momentum,the real estate has been one of the pillar industry in economy of Jiangxi province.This paper comprehensively analyzes the current situation of the real estate market in Jiangxi province by focusing on the main macro factors,which affect the commercial housing market and economic growth.A variety of measurement methods are used in this paper to test different research variables and explore the factors that influence the housing price in Jiangxi province.Based on the comparative analysis of real estate market and inflation system transfer in Jiangxi province,this paper combines macro-control policy with empirical evidence.In addition,the paper also forecasts the development trend of Jiangxi real estate market and conducts the bubble test.It not only meets the need to research the real estate market of Jiangxi province in theory,but also can satisfy the market economy in Jiangxi province and the real needs of the strategic development of real estate industry.In the empirical part of this paper,firstly the relationship between the real estate market and economic growth in Jiangxi province was measured.The GDP growth rate of Jiangxi province and the growth rate of industrial added value were used to represent the economic development level of Jiangxi province,and the development level of the real estate market in Jiangxi province was selected as the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales in Jiangxi province.Based on the empirical results of the original sequence,it can be seen that the first order difference sequence of GDP growth in Jiangxi province and the growth rate of commercial housing sales can significantly influence each other,and the growth rate of industrial added value can also significantly affect the first order difference sequence of GDP.Moreover,they are the Granger relationship for each other.But there is only a one-sided effect between sales growth and the growth rate of industrial output.In addition to the horizontal value orientation of the variables,the paper also conducts the micro filter analysis.Secondly,by establishing the multivariate regression model,this paper analyzes the degree and direction of the impact of each variable on the housing price through the significance test.Moreover,it is highly significant for CPI to compare and analyze the trend of the real estate market in Jiangxi province and the corresponding relation of corresponding inflation.The results of Markov district transfer model show that monthly growth rate and inflation rate of the real estate price in Jiangxi province are characterized by two distinct characteristics,namely,high growth and low growth,which also indicate that structural mutation is real in the operation of real estate market in Jiangxi province,and the magnitude and time of the fluctuation are related to the macro-control policy.Finally,based on SADF GSADF tests,the paper carries out the bubble test of Jiangxi real estate market.We also forecast the next year's monthly housing prices in Jiangxi province based on the Holter-Winter Seasonal product model prediction.Empirical results found that during the period between September 2009 and February2012,the foam had accumulated but did not become effervescent.And the housing price of Jiangxi province will fluctuate slightly in the next year with the stable increasing rate.At last,this paper summarizes the conclusions based on the empirical results,and gives the relevant policy suggestions. |
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