An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Industrial Structure Optimization On The Development Of Modern Logistics Industry

Under the background of economic transformation,the logistics industry that belongs to the third industry continues to promote the development of the third industry,and meanwhile,the development of the third industry has also driven the development of the modern logistics industry.In 2015,the Medium and Long-term Plan for Logistics Development(2014-2020)was promulgated to upgrade the logistics industry to the national strategic level.In theory,the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure has promoted the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and thus promoted the development of the logistics industry,while the development of the modern logistics industry can continuously promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.However,in some provinces and cities,the share of logistics output in GDP is declining.Faced with this situation,many scholars have studied the internal factors that influence the optimization of industrial structure on the development of modern logistics industry under the background of industrial restructuring,but there is no unified conclusion.Therefore,it is of practical significance to choose the appropriate index system to study the influence of industrial structure optimization on the development of modern logistics industry.In order to deeply study the relationship between the optimization of industrial structure and the development level of modern logistics industry,this paper studies from four aspects: literature review,current situation analysis,mathematical model and quantitative measurement.In the literature research,we find that Chinese scholars lack of theoretical analysis and robust test of empirical results in empirical analysis,while most foreign scholars use mathematical models to study one aspect of the problem.Based on the literature,the research logic of this paper is as follows:Firstly,define the concept of industrial structure optimization and modern logistics development level,select two indicators of industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure rationalization to measure the optimization degree of industrial structure,and select the value-added logistics and cargo turnover to replace the development level of modern logistics industry.Through basic statistical analysis,we can conclude that the industrial structure of our country has gradually gone from "two,three,one" pattern to "three,two and one" pattern.In 2012,the proportion of the tertiary industry exceeds that of the secondary industry,and the tertiary industry accounted for more than 50% in 2015.Regional differences show obvious: the optimization of the industrial structure in the east is higher than that in the central and western regions,while that in the central region is higher than that in the western regions.At the same time,the development level of modern logistics in our country has strong similarities with regional differences and the characteristics of industrial structure optimization.Secondly,from the macro and micro perspectives,it analyzes the transmission path that the industrial structure optimization affects the development level of the modern logistics industry,and uses the CD production function to deduce the influence of industrial structure optimization on the development level of modern logistics.Through the mathematical derivation,it is found that the level of development of modern logistics industry is positively correlated with the degree of industrial structure optimization.Finally,on the basis of theory,choose the panel model and dynamic panel model to empirically study the impact of industrial structure optimization on the development of modern logistics.The results show that individual factors that do not change with time can further explain about 38.8% of the modern logistics development level changes;After adding the economic dummy variables,about 13% of the individual effects can be explained by the regional differences;The influencing factors emphasized by previous scholars have no significant effect on the development level of modern logistics and lack some explanatory power;Advanced industrial structure significantly promoted the development of modern logistics industry,while the rationalization of industrial structure has also promoted the development of modern logistics industry,but it is not significant.Consequently,the individual effect,regional difference and industrial structure optimization have obvious influence on the development level of modern logistics industry.In order to analyze the relationship between them,this paper establishes a dynamic panel model to deeply study the relationship between the them.The results show that the advanced industrial structure has a significant role in promoting the development of the modern logistics industry,and the rationalization of industrial structure also plays a significant role in promoting the development of the modern logistics industry.Meanwhile,there are also differences in various regions: the eastern region has a clear effect while the central and western regions are weaker;It verifies that the factors that the previous scholars emphasize have the problem of insufficient explanatory power,and the individual effect has a greater impact on the development of the modern logistics industry and shows greater regional differences.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,under the conclusion,this paper gets some relevant policy suggestions on the optimization of industrial structure to promote the development of modern logistics industry.