An Empirical Study On The Effect Of Financial Development On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

This paper first discusses theoretically the mechanism of financial development and the effects of industrial structure upgrading,then analyses the present situation of China's financial development from the three aspects of financial development scale,financial development structure and financial development efficiency,the present situation of industrial structure from the structural effect and internal effect of industrial structure upgrading and the existing problems between them.And through the construction of the model of coupling coordination degree between financial development and upgrading of industrial structure,this paper specifically calculate the degree of coupling coordination between China's financial development and upgrading of industrial structure from 1994 to 2016.Based on this,in order to further explore the intrinsic link between financial development and upgrading of industrial structure,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is established,empirical analysis is conducted on the time-series data of the financial development scale,financial development structure,financial development efficiency,the structural effect and internal effect of the upgrading of industrial structure of China in 1994-2016.The results are as follows:(1)Between 1994 and 2016,China's financial development and the upgrading of industrial structure have maintained a good overall coupling relationship,but the degree of coupling coordination between them shows a fluctuating upward trend and reach a moderate coordination stage in 2016.(2)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the scale of financial development,the structure of financial development,the structural effect of China's industrial structure upgrading.(3)In the long term,the scale of financial development and the structure of financial development have a significant positive effect on the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading,but the impact of financial development structure on the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading is small;the efficiency of financial development has a significant negative effect on the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading.(4)In the short term,the scale of financial development promote the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading,and make a greater contribution,but gradually weaken;the financial development structure is not conducive to the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading,and the contribution of financial development structure is smaller than the scale of financial development;financial development efficiency generally promote the structural effect of industrial structure upgrading,and the promotion effect become more fluctuated.the contribution of financial development efficiency is smaller than the scale of financial development.(5)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the scale of financial development,the structure of financial development,financial development efficiency and the internal effect of upgrading of industrial structure.(6)In the long term,the scale of financial development and the efficiency of financial development have no significant effect on the growth rate of the total factor productivity(TFP)of the secondary industry;the financial development structure has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of the secondary industry TFP.(7)In the long term,the scale of financial development,financial development structure,and financial development efficiency have no significant effect on the TFP growth rate of the third industry.(8)In the short term,the scale of financial development and the efficiency of the financial system promote the growth of the TFP of the second industry,but it fluctuates greatly;the financial development structure inhibite the growth of the TFP of the secondary industry.In addition,the change of financial development scale,financial development structure,and financial development efficiency contribute to the growth rate of the TFP of the second industry.However,the financial development scale has a larger contribution in the earlier period,and the contribution of financial development scale is relatively small in the later period,the contribution of the financial development structure and the financial development efficiency is smaller in the early stage,and the contribution in the later period is relatively larger.(9)In the short term,the scale of financial development promote the growth of the TFP of the third industry,and make a greater contribution,but the promotion effect become more fluctuated;the financial development structure and financial system efficiency inhibite the growth of the TFP of the third industry,the contribution is smaller than the scale of financial development.Finally,according to the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations: Promote the coordinated development between financial development and upgrading of industrial structure;appropriately control the scale of financial development;guide the direction of credit with the principle of marketization;promote the coordinated development between bank intermediary and securities markets,optimize the financial structure;deepen the reform of the financial system,improve the efficiency of the financial system;optimize the internal and external structure of the industry,and particularly increase the internal efficiency of the industry.