Study On Co-evolution Characteristics Of Population,Economic,Land,Environment During The Urbanization In Jilin Province

Urbanization is an important symbol of the social and economic development level of a country or region.The healthy and coordinated development of urbanization is the goal of new-type urbanization.The coordination of population,economy,land and environment is the specific requirement when the urbanization in China has entered a new stage of development,which is in line with the objective law of the sustainable development of urbanization.Based on the theory of sustainable development,new-type urbanization and synergism,this paper takes urbanization as the main line,treating Jilin province as the research area,and considering the coordinated evolution of population,economy,land and environment as the research object.Firstly,the degree of imbalance between population,economy and land subsystem is analyzed by means of coefficient of deviation.The speed of land urbanization is faster than that of population urbanization and faster than that of economic urbanization.The degree of maladjustment between subsystems is highly dysfunctional or even serious.With the development of economy and the improvement of material level,the environmental pollution caused by the discharge of population is much more than that of industrial production.Secondly,based on system dynamics theory and method,the system dynamics model was built by clarifying the causal feedback relationship between subsystems,drawing the flow diagram and inputting quantitative equation.After validation of the validity of the model,the trend of the key variables of urbanization development under five scenarios is forecasted.The result of scenario simulation showed that,in 2015-2030 years,the population urbanization rate,the industrial output,the construction land of urban and pollutants will continue to increase in five scenarios.In addition,this research found that population migration is the main source of the increase of urban residents.After a simple adjustment of the proportion of capital investment,the industrial structure can not be fundamentally changed,and the second industry is still the largest proportion.In the process of land urbanization,we should pay more attention to the remediation potential of rural residential land and the development of unused land.The accumulation of pollutants will increase in a certain period of time,but the economic loss caused by environmental pollution is less than the beneficial effects brought by the development economy and the growing population.Finally,four indicators are used to determine the optimal development scenario and put forward suggestions for the coordinated development of urbanization in Jilin Province in the future.Therefore,in the process of urbanization in Jilin province,we should actively develop the tertiary industry,promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,provide more jobs,promote the transfer of the population,and pay more attention to the potential of rural residential areas,enhance the awareness of environmental protection and improve the cleaner production capacity.