Research On The Identification And Control Of Financial Risk In Real Estate Industry In China

Recent years,in order to ensure the sustained,healthy and stable development of the real estate industry,and to really implement the national orientation that "house is for living,not for speculation",our government has successively introduced a number of macroeconomic regulation policies,including land,finance,purchase restrictions,loan restrictions,etc.Particularly since 2016,new deal regulation intensively release,such as purchase and loan restrictions,the management of permits for pre-sale of newly built commercial houses and the record system for existing sales,regulatory system of transaction funds,signed contracts of sale system all have been tightened in many places.The implementation of the new deal regulation make the real estate industry obviously cool down and the financial risk intensifies.The research shows that in recent years,China's real estate market has been relatively oversupplied and destocked seriously;the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing sales has decreased,the difficulty of recovering capital has been aggravated,the credit's continued tighten and financing difficulties lead to serious fund shortage in real estate industry,facing huge financial pressure,and even falling into financial distress.How to identify financial risks in real estate industry efficiently and conveniently and avoid them in advance is of great significance.On the basis of combing the domestic and foreign research theories and achievements on financial risk,this paper starts with the financial risk of listed real estate companies that best represent the real estate industry,and from the perspective of national policy,investment,financing,cash recovery and operating status to analyze the financial risk of listed real estate companies.By comparing and analyzing the differences of financial data between 9 normalcompanies and 9 abnormal companies of comparable size in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in 2016,the significant indexes are determined.Using the cumulative contribution rate method select the principal component from the determined significant index to construct the F-Score Model to estimate the financial risk of listed real estate companies.In order to test the accuracy of the F-Score Model,the F value of 115 companies was verified.The results show: 109 families have passed the inspection,the overall accuracy rate is 94.78%,the accuracy of the F-Score Model is high and simple and convenient,which can be used to identify the financial risk of the real estate listing company.For the identified financial risks of listed real estate companies in China,this paper puts forward some feasible countermeasures to prevent and control them,and provides a useful reference for the sustainable development of listed real estate companies in China.