Analysis And Prediction Of Freight Traffic Volume In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Provinces

The rapid economic development is closely related to the development of the transportation industry.A good transportation infrastructure can promote economic development.The rapid economic development can support the development of the transportation industry.Both promote each other and complement each other.Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region is the most important economic region in the eastern coastal areas of China.In recent years,the government has actively promoted the integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and it is imperative to promote the development of transportation integration in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Whether or not the integration of transportation construction is closely related to the needs of regional economic development,so in the process of realizing the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation,it is necessary to fully grasp the volume of cargo in the region,the freight transportation system,and the factors affecting the change in freight volume..Therefore,it is particularly important to predict and study the dynamic relationship between the future Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei freight volume and the influencing factors of freight volume.By reading a large number of domestic and foreign documents,this article has studied in depth the factors affecting the freight volume of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on the construction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration and the current trends of freight volume in the region,and has constructed a highly accurate forecasting model for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei freight forwarding.Amount was forecasted.The article mainly starts from the following two aspects:(1)the paper on the basis of widely refer to the freight volume forecasting literature,this paper expounds the freight volume forecasting methods,steps and the applicable scope of the comprehensive analysis of the current main prediction method and the existing shortcomings.By grey relation analysis of selected volumes of four key factors,the total energy consumption,population,transportation line length,the second industrial production as freight volume forecast indicators,selection of ARIMA model,VAR model and support vector machine(SVM)model as the basic method of traffic volume forecast,three areas of beijing-tianjin-hebei freight volume prediction accuracy were compared.Results show that ARIMA model prediction accuracy is poorer,the average relative error of 0.13,support vector machine prediction accuracy is best,the average relative error is 0.02,the average relative error of VAR model to predict traffic volume between the two,Therefore,this article from the two aspects of prediction accuracy and practical use,suggested that the combined use of VAR and SVM model is the beijing-tianjin-hebei freight volume prediction and influence factors analysis is most appropriate.(2)The paper again in the VAR model on the basis of the analysis of the total energy consumption,population,transportation line length,second,the interaction between industrial output and traffic volume,the results showed that:the second industrial production,population and freight volume has positive changes in the long-term equilibrium relationship between;There is a negative long-term equilibrium between the total amount of energy consumption,the length of the transportation line and the freight volume.The length of the transportation line is the reason for the one-way granger of freight volume,and the freight volume is the one direction granger cause of total energy consumption and total population.Finally,it is concluded that the total amount of energy consumption and the second industrial output are the main reasons for the fluctuation of freight volume,and the total population is not the main factor that causes the fluctuation of freight volume.The innovation point of this essay is by selecting the ARIMA model,VAR model and support vector machine(SVM)model to predict the future freight volume of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region,by comparing the prediction accuracy and practical significance to choose the most suitable prediction model.And the VAR model based on grey association analysis method and the analysis of the influence of the key influence factors on the traffic volume,can be control by adjusting the influence factors of freight traffic volume,and then to provide scientific reference for the management of the transportation of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region.This can help the transportation department to better regulate and forecast cargo volume,establish a more scientific and standardized freight system,and promote traffic integration in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.