Research On Freight Volume Forecast Of Chongqing Bulk Commodities Based On Input-output Model

With the rapid development of national economy,the freight volume continues to increase.How to adapt to the development of the freight transportation remains to be a serious problem.The changes of freight volume would exert a direct impact on logistics planning and logistics policy,which make it necessary to forecast freight volume.The prediction objects mainly focus on the bulk commodity,which is the basic demanding material for the industrial sectors.The bulk commodity is also an important indicator of capacity of regional logistics in regional planning.In parallel,the input-output theory in economics analyzes the commodity amount(theoretical value or physical quantity)through the raw materials input-output of industry sectors.Therefore,we can use the input-output theory to predict freight volume.Research on the prediction of regional commodities freight volume through input-output theory is of certain theoretical and practical significance.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Describe the research background and significance of using input-output model to predict bulk commodity freight volume,and the development status of domestic and foreign research in this field.(2)From the perspective of qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods,introduce and compare the traditional freight volume forecasting methods and shows the respective advantages and disadvantages,then lead the applicability of the input-output model predicting the bulk commodity freight volume.We introduce the input-output theory in detail and establish the mathematical model of regional input-output prediction,and we also provide the detailed prediction steps.(3)Define the meaning of the bulk commodity,and take Chongqing as the target research area,and analyze of the basic situation of Chongqing bulk commodity freight volume.(4)Empirical research.We establish the regional input-output table according to the 2014 Chongqing Statistical Yearbook,and use the input-output model above to predict the regional bulk commodity freight volume.The main conclusions of this paper:(1)through the comparison of input-output model with traditional methods,we found that input-output theory applies to bulk commodity freight volume prediction.(2)Through regional input-output model we can predict the OD value of bulk commodity freight and total freight tonnages,which may provide certain mathematical references for regional logistics development planning.The main innovative points:(1)we use the input-output model to predict the regional freight volume,which provides a new approach for regional freight forecast.(2)Build the empirical study of bulk commodity freight volume predicting results,and describe the implementation steps of input-output prediction model.And we find that the method is also applicable to other areas on the basis of consummate statistical work.