Research On The Three Notrheastern Provinces Regional Freight Volume Influencing Factors Screening And Forecast

The three Northeastern Provinces is located in the center of NortheastAsia, and adjacent to Russia, South Korea, Japan and other countries, is animportant hub of our country towards Northeast Asia. Regional Logisticshas an increasingly important position in the three Northeastern Provinces ofregional economic activity. Regional Logistics is the artery of the economicactivities. Regional Logistics is a ligament which can contact of productionand consumption. Regional Logistics is the basis of improve the level ofsocial development and living conditions. Regional Logistics is also one ofthe important criterions to measure the degree of a country’s modernization.Therefore, the research on the three Northeastern Provinces regionallogistics is necessary. In order to have a clearer understanding of the value of the regionallogistics, we must recognize the level of development of the region’slogistics. This article attempts to research the three Northeastern Provinceslogistics demand forecasting, to provide a credible reference fordevelopment level and trend of the three Northeastern Provinces regionallogistics. It is relatively difficult to define and measure the logistics demand,as well as freight volume is an important part of the logistics demand.Therefore, this article analyzes and forecast the impact factors of the freightvolume, to some extent, to reflect the trend of the three NortheasternProvinces regional logistics demand in the next few years.The contents of this paper include the following sections:(1) The theory of regional logistics and freight volume. Elaborate thebasic connotation and the main features of regional logistics and logisticsdemand. Define the regional freight volume connotation. Analyze the influence between regional economic and regional logistics. Discuss therelationship between the regional freight volume and logistics demand.(2) Screening the regional freight influencing factors. By consulting therelevant literature, pointing out inadequate of the selection in regionalfreight volume influencing factors and indicators: the vast majorities just usequalitative analysis methods to build a regional freight volume influencingfactors system, and no quantitative analysis. Then put forward this articleuse the quantitative analysis methods screening the freight volumeinfluencing factors. Combined with the actual data of The ThreeNortheastern Provinces, choose the ridge regression method to find theindex system more in line with the actual the freight volume influencingfactors.(3) Forecast the three Northeastern Provinces regional freight volumeinfluencing factors. Through analyze the literature of forecasting methods, recognize the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methodsand applications. Select the gray forecasting methods to construct theforecasting model of the freight volume influencing factors, and thenforecast the influencing factors for the next six years.(4) Forecast the three Northeastern Provinces regional freight volume.Select the multiple linear regression forecasting method to construct theforecasting model of the three Northeastern Provinces regional freightvolume, and use ridge regression estimates to improve the prediction model.Combined with the influencing factors prediction results, calculate theregional freight volume of the three Northeastern Provinces for the next sixyears.