Research On Key Indicators' Association And Economic Benefits Of Wind Power Development In China

With the development of society and the increase of demand for new energy,the new energy industry is developing rapidly under the support of national policies.This can not only improve the proportion of clean energy utilization,but also solve environmental pollution problems,and then promote the development of national economy.In a variety of renewable energy power generation,wind power in China has developed rapidly in recent years,and its installed capacity has increased significantly every year.From the national level to all levels of government,wind power is strongly supported.By the end of 2017,the total installed capacity of wind power in China has reached 0.164 million MW,accounting for 9.2%of the total installed capacity,and wind power generation is 305.7 billion kWh,accounting for 4.8%of the total generating capacity.However,since 2010,there has been a serious phenomenon of abandonment in China,especially in North China,northeast and Northwest China.In recent years,the phenomenon of abandoned wind is becoming more and more serious,and the proportion of abandoned wind is increasing year by year.The abandoned wind not only restricts the development of wind power,but also causes serious losses to the national economic development.Therefore,more and more scholars have paid more and more attention to the economic benefit of wind power and the wind power development.In this context,the research contents of this paper are as follows:This paper first analyzes the current wind power policy in China from the angle of macro policy,price policy,tax policy,loan and subsidy policy,technical standard and innovation as well as management system support.Secondly,according to abandoned wind phenomenon serious problem in the existing policy of China wind power.This paper uses System dynamics(SD)to build a basic wind current rate into the tree model,and uses the branch vector determinant feedback loop algorithm to solve the relationship between the key indicators in the development process of wind power,and proposes the trans-regional wind power transmission path,which is the future China's provinces of the wind power transfer route from the northern and western regions to the eastern and southern regions.Then,a two-factor learning curve model is constructed to calculate the investment cost of wind power units with the cumulative Installed capacity and research development funds.Combined with wind power LCOE model,the time series of wind power LCOE in China are calculated,and the wind power efficiency in each province is classified,and the best economic benefit is found in the central region and the worst is in the northern region.In addition,through the sensitivity analysis to further determine,the current impact on China's wind power economic benefits of the main factor is abandoned wind,in response to this major factor,this paper puts forward a few measures to improve the economic benefits of wind power.The final results show that,first,China's wind power LCOE is between 0.4726 and 0.6087 yuan/kWh in 2016.Second,Secondly,the key indicators in the development of wind power in China are the fixed price of wind power,the growth rate of installed capacity,the supporting power grid facilities for wind power,and the degree of coal mine peak matching,and analyzed the relationship between them.Third,the economy benefits of Central China(especially Eastern)area's wind power are the best,followed by the southern region,the economy benefits of northern area's wind power is poor.