| The leverage ratio has an important impact on financial and econo mic stability and the development of enterprises,and the increase in leverage will increase the risk of corporate debt.As our country ranks first in the Bank for International Settlements for the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises,deleveraging and preventing and resolving major risks are imperative.In various non-financial industries,the level of leverage and risk-taking of real estate companies in China are particularly worthy of attention.Judging from the absolute level of the leverage ratio expressed by the corporate asset-liability ratio,or the relative level of the leverage ratio reflected in the debt repayment ability,the leverage ratio of real estate companies ranks first in all non-financial industries.In the meantime,for the risk level of real estate companies,whether it is from the ratio of new loans from real estate companies to the total new loans,or from the sources and scale of investment in real estate companies,or from the bad loan rate of real estate companies in commercial banks that the level of risk assumed by real estate companies in China is also higher than that of other industries,and it still shows an upward trend.All these indicate that we should pay more attention to the leverage and debt risk of real estate companies.In addition,through the statistical analysis of the data,it is found that the change trend of the two tends to be consistent.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of the leverage ratio of the real estate company on the risk of the enterprise.With the gradual deepening of the leverage management policy as a macro-prudential tool in recent years,China has achieved some results in financial stability.Therefore,taking into account the effects of macroeconomic policies such as leverage management policies and monetary policies on corporate risk taking,will also be important for deleveraging and preventing and resolving major risks of real estate companies.This article takes China's real estate company as the research object and takes 2007-2016 as the research period to study the influence of the enterprise's leverage on the enterprise's risk bearing.According to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,the real estate company's asset-liability ratio represents its leverage ratio,and the real estate company's profitability fluctuation rate after three-year rolling window period adjustment indicates its risk-taking level.In addition,the scale of the company,the concentration of the company's ownership,its growth,and its operating capability are selected as control variables.Considering the stickiness of corporate risk taking,in order to obtain better research results,I chose the GM-GMMM method to conduct empirical research.First of all,it studies the correlation between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and the corporate risk commitment.After considering that the development of any enterprise is inseparable from the role of macroeconomic factors,further studies have been conducted on the e ffect of leverage ratio of real estate companies on corporate risk taking when considering the role of monetary policy if broad money supply is used as the proxy variable of monetary policy.Based on this,combined with the application of domestic macro pr udential tools in recent years,the effect of the leverage ratio management policy with the second-home loan-to-value ratio(LTV)upper limit as the proxy variable was studied to reduce the risk level of real estate companies.Finally,the impact of the interaction between monetary policy and leverage management policy on the risk exposure of real estate companies is analyzed.Through empirical research,this paper has drawn several conclusions: the leverage ratio of real estate companies is positively related to risk;monetary policy will affect the role of real estate companies in the leverage ratio,and loose monetary policy can reduce the level of risk exposure of real estate companies.Leverage rate management policies will have a positive impact on the level of risk assumed by real estate companies,relax the upper limit of LTV,and increase the level of risk appetite for real estate companies.The interaction of leverage ratio management policies and monetary policy will have an impact on the level of risk exposure of real estate companies.And the influence of the former is greater than that of the latter.According to the analysis results of the paper,the following specific recommendations are proposed: For real estate companies,leverage should be used reasonably,and the level of leverage should be monitored in a timely manner to prevent excessive leverage;real estate companies should also actively build a risk management system that is coordinated with macroeconomic policies.Policy adjustments and selection of risk management strategies that are appropriate to them;for the government,the establishment of indicators for macro-prudential instruments should be improved,and different monetary policies should be used in conjunction with leverage management policies to improve the effectiveness of policies. |
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