Study On The Profit Distribution Of Upstream And Downstream Enterprises Under Supply And Demand Uncertainty

With the development of Chinese capital market and Internet information,some enterprises began to cooperate with upstream or downstream enterprises in order to obtain more information and profits.In the process of cooperation,problems such as income distribution and risk sharing have emerged.More and more scholars have begun to study how to maintain long-term and stable cooperative relationship between enterprises in the supply chain.There have been a lot of previous discussions on the revenue sharing contract model,in real life,there are also cases in which supply chain members use revenue sharing contracts and gain greater returns.Therefore,the main content of this paper is the uncertainty of supply and demand between enterprises in the supply chain,and all the analysis and discussion are carried out under the revenue sharing contract.The logical order of the study is first to study the relevant research of the revenue sharing contract,then construct enterprises' revenue model before and after signing the revenue sharing under the risk-neutral situation,analyze and compare the optimal decisions(retailer's optimal order and supplier's optimal raw material purchase)and revenue.Finally,on the basis of the previous models,we construct the enterprise revenue sharing model under risk preference,and analyze the influence of risk parameters on the optimal decision and revenue of each enterprise.The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)When all enterprises in the supply chain are risk neutral,firstly,based on the original revenue sharing model,we add a price reduction factor to indicate the uncertainty of supply and demand,and build a new revenue sharing model.Secondly,we analyze the optimal decision and revenue level of the enterprises and the whole supply chain before and after signing the contract.Besides,we allocate the revenue of each enterprise based on the Shapley value method.Finally,we use matlab R2016a software to carry on the numerical simulation experiment.Through numerical simulation,it is found that no matter how the cost,the wholesale price and other factors change,the profit after signing the contract is always higher.Besides,since the uncertainty of supply and demand is the main object of this paper,we analyze the impact of emergency cost on optimal decisions and revenue of enterprises.The results show that when the urgent cost increases,the change trend of revenue and the optimal decision after signing the contract are more stable,it shows that after signing the contract,the information transparency between enterprises is higher,cooperation consciousness is stronger and the matching degree of optimal decision is higher,which may reduce the possibility of adverse effects such as waste of resources.(2)When all enterprises in the supply chain are risk preference,firstly,we build a revenue sharing model of M-CVaR on the basis of the previous model.Secondly,for the selection of risk parameters,we use weight factor and confidence factor to express the degree of risk preference.The previous scholar only referred to the confidence coefficient of the retailer when setting the quantile in the M-CVaR,however,in the actual situation,the risk preference of each enterprise is different,therefore,we assume different confidence coefficients for each enterprise and refer to their respective confidence coefficients when setting different quantiles of enterprises.The risk parameter of the supply chain is weighted by the risk parameters of all enterprises,that is,the risk preference of each enterprise will affect the overall risk preference of the supply chain.Finally,we analyze the influence of risk parameters on enterprise's optimal decision and revenue through numerical simulation.The results show that the difference of risk preference will affect the enterprise's optimal decision,and no matter how the enterprise's risk preference changes,the revenue after signing the contract is always higher.