A Study On The Export Duration Of China's Textile Products Under The Background Of C AFTA

In recent years,due to the pressure brought by the rising cost of production factors and the increasingly complex trade pattern in the international market,the export of China's textile products has fluctuated significantly,and both the total export value and the export value to ASEAN have declined.The textile industry is a traditional pillar industry in China and plays an important role in China's export trade.Most of the existing international trade literature examines the issue of China's textile exports from the point of view of trade flows,and less considers the dynamic changes in trade relations.In fact,trade relations are generally unstable.In order to study the characteristics of China's textile export products from the microscopic level,this article uses the China-ASEAN free trade area(CAFTA)to establish the background.It based on China's 1995-2014 CEPII-BACI database HS6 product level textile products export data,using survival analysis method to estimates the duration of China's textile products exported to ASEAN and to other countries or regions,then analyzes the influencing factors.The DID method is further adopted to estimate the degree of influence of the establishment of CAFTA on the duration of trade of China's textile exports to ASEAN.After estimating the duration of export of China's textile products,it was found that the textile products duration of trade that China export to ASEAN was longer than those exported to other countries or regions,which were 4.6 years and 3.7 years respectively;and the types and export purposes of different products were different.There are also significant differences in the duration of exports between the level of income of the land and its own continent.After analyzing the influencing factors of the export duration of China's textile products,we found that the member states of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area had positive effects,but the establishment effect of the free trade zone was negative.Further study on the influence of the establishment of CAFTA by the DID method on the duration of China's textile products exported to the ASEAN shows that the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has reduced the duration by 0.317 years.After the classification estimation we found only the duration of the trade in apparel products and their accessories has extended,and the duration of trade in other products has decreased.The empirical results show that the establishment of the CAFTA did not improve the export duration of China's textile products,probably because the establishment time of the free trade zone was still short and did not fully exert its effect;in addition,the establishment of the free trade zone resulted in export costs.The decline led to the blind export of enterprises,which led to an increase in the probability of failure of exports and affected the duration of exports.Therefore,before exporting,enterprises must fully understand the market structure of the destination country or region,make use of various preferential policies in the free trade zone,and use product diversification and market diversification to avoid risks at the same time.For industries with low value-added products,we can transfer to utilize the advantages of ASEAN countries fully such as resources and labor costs and reach cooperation and win-win results.Relevant government departments must guide healthy competition among enterprises,provide early warning mechanisms to prevent blind exports,and provide relevant consulting services.