| With the gradual progress of the internationalization of the RMB and the continuous improvement of the exchange rate system,the formation of exchange rates in China is gradually changing to the supply and demand of the market,and the range of fluctuations has therefore been expanded.The impact on China's economic development has also become increasingly significant.From the macro level,changes in the exchange rate of local currency will affect social consumption and investment status by affecting macroeconomic indicators such as interest rates and money supply.From the micro level,exchange rate changes will directly affect the performance of the import and export company by changing the relative purchasing power of local currency,it will also lead to fluctuations in the value of local currency assets,affecting investors' investment decisions.As far as China's status quo is concerned,real estate is an object that people pay special attention to whether it is a consumer product or an investment product,and the rise of the industry supports China's economic growth to a large extent.Therefore,when the exchange rate fluctuates frequently,the degree of influence on the real estate market should become the focus of our attention.In this paper,the exchange rate index is selected from the real effective exchange rate of RMB,and its increase means the increase in the value of the currency.Compared with the nominal exchange rate,this indicator can fully show the comprehensive competitiveness of a country's currency.From the comparison of the monthly data provided by the Bank for International Settlements and the monthly closing price of the Shanghai Composite Real Estate Index,since the second exchange reform in China in 2005,in addition to the significant fluctuations in the impact of the 2008 financial crisis,the actual effective exchange rate of RMB rose from 85.01 to 131.03 by July 2015,but it dropped to 118.95 with the strong return of the US dollar and the implementation of the 811 exchange reform.Compared with the monthly closing price of the Shanghai Real Estate Index during the same period,it once rose from 774 points after the exchange rate reform in 2005 to the peak of 8075 points in 2007.Also due to the impact of the financial crisis,it caused large fluctuations,and then rose to 9449 point in 2015 with the appreciation of the local currency.To further confirm the impact of exchange rate on the real estate sector,this paper subsequently combines the theoretical basis of the effect mechanism of the exchange rate on the stock price,and in conjunction with the status quo of the industry for an in-depth understanding of the specific mechanisms between the two.In addition,due to the complexity of the factors that cause changes in the real estate stock price,this article also analyzes the role of real estate stock prices from the perspective of other real estate industry indicators.In the empirical aspect,this paper adds control variables based on the VAR model.After Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition,it confirms the positive effect of real effective exchange rate on real estate stock price.Through a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis methods,this paper finds that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the real estate index of Shanghai Stock Exchange,and that these two factors affect each other and promote each other.At the same time,the response of the Shanghai Real Estate Index to the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has a certain lag period,and the contribution rate of the real effective exchange rate to the real estate index gradually increases with time and tends to be stable.Finally,based on the current situation of China's market development and the current trend of devaluation,this article considers from the three perspectives of macroeconomic regulation,investors,and real estate developers,and makes relevant recommendations... |
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