An Empirical Study Of International Trade Competing Behavior Based On The Improved Gravitational Model

There are two shortcomings in the empirical study of the traditional gravitational model: first,some scholars use the export amount as the explanatory variable,and some scholars use the total import and export as the explanatory variable,which leads to the chaotic choice of the export volume and the total import and export of the gravitational model.Two,the factors affecting the trade volume are very complex.When some scholars use gravitational model to do empirical research,there is a lack of theoretical analysis on the influence factors of trade volume,which leads to the randomness of the choice of the explanatory variables of the gravitational model.At the same time,the theory of competing behavior as a new theory,no scholars have introduced it into the field of international trade,leading to the lack of an empirical model for international trade competition.In view of the above shortcomings,this paper establishes the logical relationship between the international trade competition behavior and the gravity model by means of import and export.In the analysis of the internal mechanism of international trade competition and gravitational model,combined with the general imbalance of import and export,this paper revises the Tinbergen gravity model as the total amount of import and export.In order to avoid the randomness of the selection of the variable selection of the gravitational model,this paper also puts forward the general principle of selecting the influencing factors of international trade competition behavior: Based on the trade theory,combining the quantifying of the influence factors and the availability of the data,the factors that affect the total trade volume are classified and the international trade is competitive.Empirical models of behavior include economic,natural,social,cultural and other aspects as far as possible.Because the size of the international trade cooperation and competition is the size of the attraction and exclusion of the gravity model,they can be expressed through the amount of imports and exports.Therefore,combined with the "The Belt and Road" strategy,this paper analyzes China and 54 countries along the trade cooperation competition fluctuation and cooperation zone,competition,competition zone distribution area.The research results of wave rule and distribution show that China's trade with 54 other countries along the route is still in a competitive and immature state.On 2000-2015 Chinese and The Belt and Road "along the 10 country trade cooperation and competition behavior is mainly affected by what factors influence the economic scale,spatial distance,trade type,demand preference similarity,transaction cost,cultural distance six competition factor set for GDP,space distance,trade type,per capita national The total income gap,whether to set up a free trade area,whether to use the same language.With the index constructed by the above model set,The results of regression analysis show that the use of Chinese,the establishment of a free trade area,the increase of trade goods and the increase of the GDP of the trade between the two sides of China and the 10 countries promote the improvement of the trade competition behavior of China and the 10 countries,while the difference in the gross national income of China and the 10 countries along the line and the increase of the space distance are increased.It will inhibit the improvement of trade competition.