An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of House Price Fluctuation On Residents’ Consumption

Under the new development pattern,expanding domestic demand is an important channel to bridge the double cycle.As an important part of domestic demand,resident consumption plays a very important role.At the same time,real estate,as a pillar industry in China,also plays an important role in China’s economic development and occupies a very important position in China’s macro economy.As an important index of the real estate market,housing price reflects the general status of the development of the real estate market.The research of this paper is based on the macro and micro perspectives to explore the impact of housing price fluctuations on residents’ consumption.Specifically,the second and third chapters are the theory and current situation analysis.This paper first explains the theories and concepts that affect residential housing prices.First,based on consumption function theory,life cycle theory and persistent income hypothesis are explained.The second part analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of housing price rise on household consumption,mainly explaining the direct transmission mechanism represented by wealth effect and crowding out effect,and the indirect transmission mechanism dominated by liquidity constraint(credit effect).Further,the third chapter analyzes the current situation of housing price fluctuation and resident consumption.One is to analyze the current characteristics and development trend of China’s real estate as well as the basic law;The second is to analyze the consumption status of residents from different angles.A series of conclusions are drawn,such as the overall consumption tends to be stable,the regional income and expenditure and the urban-rural differences are large.On this basis,this paper carries out empirical tests on the relationship between housing price fluctuations and residents’ consumption,including macro panel regression and micro mediation effect tests,combined with macro and micro dual perspective analysis.On the basis of relevant tests,the macro-level empirical results show that the rise of housing prices in each region promotes the improvement of the overall consumption level of the region;The results were significant even after accounting for the effect of one-stage lag in consumption,known as stickiness.It shows that the rise of housing price has wealth effect and can significantly promote the growth of consumption.In the micro part,the general least square method is used to analyze the CHFS database in 2017,and relevant indicators at the level of household characteristics and household head characteristics are selected to control,and the missing values of selected indicators are eliminated(all samples with houses at this time).Furthermore,the paper analyzes the intermediary effect of housing asset value and discusses the indirect transmission mechanism of housing price to residents’ consumption.The empirical results are as follows: First,the rise of housing price can significantly promote the improvement of residents’ consumption level,that is,housing shows the "wealth effect";Second,housing asset value plays an intermediary role in the transmission mechanism of housing price to household consumption,and it is a partial intermediary.Third,for residents who own more than one house,housing price rise can promote consumption to a greater extent,and the "wealth effect" is more obvious;Fourth,the rising housing price in the eastern region can significantly promote residents’ consumption,while for the central and western regions,the rising housing price has a restraining effect on residents’ consumption,but not significantly.Finally,based on empirical evidence,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from housing price,finance,lease and other perspectives,such as regulating housing price,guiding residents to rational consumption,and improving the real estate financial market to promote the growth of residents’ consumption.