Research On Financial Risk Early Warning For Internet Companies

Since the twenty-first century,China's Internet industry has shown a trend of rapid growth.By the end of 2016,the number of Internet users in China had reached 731 million people,and the network coverage had reached 53.2%.On the one hand,the Internet companies have more good opportunities for development,on the other hand,the network information technology update rapidly,new Internet business model change constantly,market competition is becoming increasingly fierce,which bringing greater financial risk for Internet companies.At present,there are many researches on financial risk early warning,but little on China's Internet industry.Therefore,it is necessary to establish a set of early warning model for Internet companies to help enterprises discover the possible financial risks.Firstly,this thesis analyzes the related theory on financial risk early warning of Internet companies and the methods of financial risk early warning,to provide the research basis.Secondly,in order to provide a basis for the selection of early warning indicators,the characteristics of Internet companies in China are analyzed,and the possible financial risks of Internet companies are identified and its causes are summarized,in addition,the financial risk conduction path of Internet companies are concluded.Thirdly,to study the financial risk of Internet companies,choose the 117 listed Internet companies in 2012 and 2015 as the research objects which including companies operating at a loss and operating normally.and establish a comprehensive early-warning index system,including financial indicators and non-financial indicators which including technological innovation ability index,traffic acquisition indicators and corporate governance index,through the test of the difference of the index,the index of early warning ability is preliminarily determined.Fourthly,in order to eliminate the linear problem between the indexes,using principal component analysis to select and name 8 main composition factors and get the formula of the main composition factors.Finally,the fitting effect and prediction effect of the model are tested,and the reserved sample is brought into the model to determine the validity of the model.The main findings of this thesis are as follows:(1)after T test and non parametric test,24 indicators have a certain effect on distinguishing whether the Internet enterprise has the financial risk.The majority are company's cash ability,profitability,technological innovation capacity,flow capacity and corporate governance indicators.(2)to reduce the dimensionality,it analyzes the 24 influencing factors by principal component analysis method and gets 8 main composition factors,using the tool SPSS.Establish the logistic early warning model on these eight factors,finding four factors have a significant effect,which are innovation ability factor,traffic acquisition and asset profitability factor,equity structure factor the internal management factors,among them,the most significant one is the innovation ability factor.(3)through the test of the model itself and the verification group,it is found that the prediction effect of the model is good,and the accuracy rate reaches 95.0% and 88.24% respectively,which shows that the model has a certain referential significance for predicting the financial risk of the enterprise internet.