The Research Of RMB Regionalization In Countries Along The “Silk Road”

After the international financial crisis burst in 2008,China was aware of the shortcomings of the existing international currency system more clearly,and it has a negative impact to China's economic development.China must took measures to cope it.Raising the international status of the RMB and promoting RMB regionalization are considered to effective methods.At present,development of RMB regionalization is generally good,but it is imbalanced locally.The RMB regionalization develops rapidly in the Southeast Asian,but the development in the area of "Silk Road" is not as well as the Southeast Asian.Strengthening currency cooperation with the other countries of "Silk Road" and promoting the RMB regionalization in the countries of the "Silk Road" not only help China complete the goal of "monetary circulation",but also be an important part of the RMB internationalization strategy.This article is mainly study the foundation of the RMB regionalization in countries of the "Silk Road" based on the OCA Theory,then determines the feasibility of RMB regionalization of in the "Silk Road" countries and put forward the corresponding recommendations.First of all,the OCA Theory and the measurement indexes of OCA Theory are summarized.It is mainly divided into three parts: the traditional OCA theory,the cost-benefit analysis and the symmetry of shock.Sum up the theory of OCA theory.Then it is analyzed the current situation of the use of RMB in the "Silk Road" from the use of the RMB of the cross-border trade with the countries of the "Silk Road",the use of the investment,the multi-level cooperation of the currency and the development of the bilateral currency exchange.In the third part,it is compared and analyzed the foundation of the currency cooperation o from seven aspects that are factor mobility,trade openness,economic development level,industrial structure,financial integration,inflation rate and noneconomic factors.The fourth part is based on the "GG-LL" model to analyze the formation of monetary area between China and the countries in the "Silk Road".It is concluded that the formation of monetary area with economic development is beneficial to China.The fifth part is the empirical part.Through the establishment of the VAR model of five variables,analyzes the impact correlation and impact size between China and the other countries in the "Silk Road",judge whether China and the countries in the "Silk Road" are suitable for the formation of monetary areas.In the end,it is concluded that the conditions for the formation of currency area are recently not available in the factor mobility,industrial structure and financial integration of the countries in the "Silk Road".And the degree of regionalization is low.At this time,if the people use of RMB as the dominant currency in the region,the cost is high.The RMB is not suitable for becoming the leading currency in the "Silk Road" area.But for the five Central Asian countries,especially Kazakhstan,China's influence has gradually increased in recent years,and the RMB is expected to become the leading currency of the five Central Asian countries.It is proposed that RMB regionalization in the "Silk Road" should be promoted in two aspects: expanding the regional impact of RMB and steadily pushing forward the cooperation process.