| Since the reform and opening up,comparative advantage with low factor cost has always been the fundamental driving force for China's economic development.However,with regard to the current situation of China's market development,this kind of low-cost advantage is continuously subsided.At present,China's economy is undergoing a period of low-speed shifts,and the limited nature of resources such as land directly leads to an increase in housing price,which in turn boosts the production and living costs of manufacturers and laborers.In this context,what kind of impact will it have on China's industrial structure? Therefore,this article will focus on the study of the impact of house price fluctuations on labor mobility and changes in industrial structure.First of all,this article takes the CP model as the guidance and introduces the house price factor into this model.The model derivation results show that the increase in house price will inhibit the inflow of labor,but it will promote the improvement of labor productivity in various industries.In the real background,through the analysis of the interaction between China's house price and the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure,we can initially concluded that there is a positive promotion between China's house price fluctuation and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.Secondly,this paper uses dynamic SYS-GMM model,static fixed effect model and random effect model to empirically test the impact of relative house price differences on the industrial structure in 31 regions of China from 2003 to 2016.At the same time,according to the value of relative house price,this paper divides into high and low price areas,and builds panel models to estimate regression values.The full-sample regression results show that: while other conditions remain unchanged,relative house price have an inverse U-shaped nonlinear relationship with the ratio of the secondary industry's employment ratio and output value,and are positively proportional to the tertiary industry's occupation and output value ratio.That is,when the relative house price exceeds 2.50,the area with high house price hascrowding effect on the employment of the second industry,but it will promote the employment and output of the third industry.According to the results of the sub-regional studies,the ratio of relative house price in high-price housing areas to the employment ratio in the second industry and the ratio of output value are all inverted U-shaped.The inflection points are 1.97 and2.32,respectively.However,there is a significant positive correlation between the employment ratio and the output value ratio of the tertiary industry,which indicates that some of the high-price housing areas in China have already exerted an expelling effect on the secondary industry and an absorption effect on the tertiary industry.The regression results in the low-price housing areas indicate that the ratios of the relative housing price to the employment rates and output ratios of the secondary industry are all nonlinear positive U-shaped relationships,and the inflection points of the positive U-shaped curves are 0.35 and 0.74,respectively.However,the ratio of relative housing price to employment ratio and output ratio of the tertiary industry has turned into an inverted U-shaped relationship.The inflection points are 0.54 and 0.78,respectively,indicating that with the upward growth of housing price,low-price housing areas will focus on developing labor-intensive secondary industries.On the whole,due to the difference in house price,China will realize the convection between the secondary and tertiary industries in the high and low housing prices,and eventually form a clear gradient of the industrial structure.Finally,this paper gives corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of housing price and industrial structure. |
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