Research On The Impact Of Regional Housing Price Rise On The Change Of Industrial Structure

Since the reform and opening up in 1978,supported by sustained high economic growth,housing prices have risen all the way,and the average sales price of China's residential commercial housing has risen from 2,197 yuan / square meter in 2003 to 7,614 yuan / square meter in 2017,the overall rate of increase About 2.5 times;coupled with the scarcity of resources,the living cost of labor and the production cost of enterprises are facing increasing pressure;and the rising of the living cost of labor and the cost of enterprises will cause enterprises to migrate and cluster,which eventually leads to Changes in industrial structure.Therefore,this article believes that it is necessary to incorporate house prices,labor,and industrial structure into a framework to reveal the main mechanism by which rising housing prices affect the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure through heterogeneous labor mobility.This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces and cities from 2003 to2017 to use the system generalized moment estimation method(Sys-GMM)to establish the mechanism of housing price fluctuations on the industrial structure,and uses labor as an intermediate variable to discuss in detail housing price fluctuations on labor mobility decisions.With the impact of the industrial structure change,the first part is the introduction,expounding the research background,significance and literature review,and introducing the research content,methods and ideas,and proposing innovation points and deficiencies;the second part is the theoretical basis,which gives a more detailed explanation of the real estate supply and demand theory,the driving effect of real estate investment,the crowding-out effect,the cost-benefittheory,the Pedi-Clark theory and the new economic geography theory;the third part is the theoretical mechanism,deducing the direct transmission path of rising house prices to the industrial structure and using labor as the middle Variables are the indirect transmission paths of housing prices to the industrial structure;the fourth part is empirical fact analysis,analyzing the average sales price trend of China's commercial housing,residential commercial housing,and commercial business housing and the three types of housing prices by region,analyze the current situation of labor flow in China,and listing the rationalization of industrial structure and Advanced measurement methods and Analysis;the fifth part is empirical analysis,introducing the construction of the model,empirically analyzing the direct impact of rising housing prices on the industrial structure,and analyzing the impact of rising housing prices on the industrial structure by region,and then studying the rising prices from the perspective of heterogeneous labor Impact on industrial structure;the sixth part is conclusions and suggestions.Summarize the main conclusions and make policy recommendations.From the empirical results,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The rise in house prices will have an impact on the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure through the living costs of the heterogeneous labor and the production costs of the enterprise;(2)Under the full sample data,house prices The direct effect of the rise on the rationalization of the industrial structure is not significant,but it has a positive effect on the advancement of the industrial structure.Therefore,the introduction of the heterogeneous labor force as a key variable for its indirect impact;(3)Empirical regression in sub-regions It was found that rising house prices in the eastern and western regions promoted therationalization of the industrial structure,and rising house prices in the central region suppressed the rationalization of the industrial structure.The rising housing prices in the eastern,central and western regions were conducive to the advancement of the industrial structure;(4)The rising housing prices acted on unskilled labor It is not conducive to the rationalization of the industrial structure,and promotes the rationalization of the industrial structure when it acts on the skilled labor;whether it acts on the unskilled or skilled labor,the rise in housing prices promotes the advancement of the industrial structure.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed:(1)The government should control the upper and lower limits of house prices to avoid excessive rises in house prices,and accordingly reduce production costs such as office building rental costs,migration costs,and labor rental costs Waiting for the cost of living;(2)It is necessary to rationally and scientifically formulate a sound macro-control policy,improve the adjustment system for land prices,taxes and rents,effectively exert market functions,and realize the sustainable development of the real estate industry;(3)For the eastern region,The urban housing market induction mechanism should be given full play to promote the accumulation of high-end technical talents and industries;for the central and western regions,while undertaking labor-intensive industries,policies that are tailored to local conditions should be implemented,and specific issues should be specifically analyzed;(4)Increase the investment of human capital in non-skilled labor,continuously improve the quality of education,improve the professional training system,improve the quality of labor,and realize the optimization and improvement of the regional labor supply structure.