Research On The Influence Factors Of Farmers' Planting Structure Under The Supply Side Reform

Changes in planting structure of farmers affect the stability of agricultural structure adjustment and supply of agricultural products.Under the background of reform in the supply side of agriculture,the changes in planting structure of farmers,the understanding of the behavioral characteristics of farmers,the collection and use of agricultural market information,and the formulation of agricultural policies by the government It is of great significance to rationally adjust the planting structure.This paper uses Jiangxi and the national agricultural statistics as the basic data.On the one hand,analyze the factors affecting the planting structure of farmers,and make a descriptive analysis of the sown area of crops in Jiangxi Province,the changes in the planting structure of farmers,the changes in prices of agricultural products,and the changes in the ratio of farmer's income to total income;On the other hand,on the basis of establishing a vector auto regressive model,we selected data on the prices of major agricultural product markets,the proportion of agricultural income to total income,and planting area in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015,and established VAR models respectively.The use of research data stationary test,Johansen cointegration test,Grainger causality test,and based on VAR model,using the generalized impulse response analysis for the dynamic relationship between the market price and the sown area of crops,the proportion of agricultural income and sown area.Research shows:The price of different grain or economic crops has a positive or negative response to the planting area.The impact of rice price had a negative impact on the increase of its planting area in the initial period,but in the long term,the stimulating effect of the price gradually appeared,and it had a positive effect on the increase of rice sown area,but the effect was not significant.In the face of the impact of price,the sown area of rapeseed is rapid and varied,and the price of rapeseed has a two-way influence on the sown area.The influence of the market price of cotton on the planting area is relatively stable,and the stimulation effect is not obvious.Agricultural income has little influence on the adjustment of planting structure,and the influence degree is different among different economic crops.Based on the research results,the government should clarify crop planting changes and trends throughout the country,establish an agricultural service system,guide farmers to do a good job of planting structural adjustment planning,establish a sound agricultural product price regulation system,futures market,prevent market risks,and promote important agricultural products such as grain The price formation mechanism and the reform of purchasing and storage system.