Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Change In Pingshan County

Land plays a very important role in the process of human evolution.It is not only the basis for human development and survival,but also the carrier of various resources.With the rapid development of the social economy,human beings have gradually deepened their land and ecological environment.A large number of land use problems have caused great harm to human survival and development.The land use simulation study can explain the mechanism of land use change,increase understanding of the spatial-temporal change process of regional land use,and optimize the spatial pattern of land use,thereby facilitating the sustainable use of land resources.Based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model,this paper takes Pingshan County as an example to analyze the characteristics of land use change in Pingshan County.Design five kinds of simulation scales to carry out regression analysis of driving factors and land use types,and set natural development scenarios and sustainable development scenarios,respectively,to simulate and predict land use changes in the study area,and obtain 2020 and 2025 based on 2015 as the base period.Pingshan County spatial simulation pattern.Research indicates:(1)According to the data of land use in the third phase of Pingshan County in 2005 and 2015 in 2015 and from the aspects of land use area structure change,land use dynamic degree analysis and land use transfer matrix analysis,the characteristics of land use change in Pingshan County were explored.It was found that the area of cultivated land,grassland,and other land in Pingshan County was decreasing from 2005 to 2015,and the area of cultivated land was reduced most.Land,land for construction,and water use are increasing.The changes in land use in Pingshan County show strong spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics.The type of land will benefit from the diversification tend to be simple,and the spatial structure of land use tends to be unstable.(2)The Logistic regression model was used to study the impact of driving forces on land use change,and the impact factors were closely related to different land types.Among them,accessibility factors had a guiding effect on land use change,and there were natural factors and socioeconomic factors.interaction.(3)Based on a total of five simulation scales of 30*30m,50*50m,70*70m,90*90m,and 110*110m,SPSS was used for logistic regression analysis of land use types,driving factors,and spatial weight functions.According to the area of ROC curve,the best scale for land use simulation in Pingshan County is 50*50m.The ROC values of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,construction land,water use land and other land use at this scale are: 0.744,0.846,0.875,0.842,0.858,0.786.On this basis,the regression coefficients of different land use types and various driving factors were obtained,and it was found that the main driving factors affecting land use distribution are not completely the same.(4)Through setting natural development scenarios and sustainable development scenarios,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict land use changes in the study area.The results showed that:In the natural development model,the land used for construction in Pingshan County has shown a relatively rapid growth,and a large number of cultivated land has been reduced.If this model continues to develop,the conflict between people and land resources will gradually increase,and it will be difficult to achieve the purpose of farmland protection.Will face more serious ecological and social problems;Under the sustainable development model,the growth rate of land for construction use has gradually slowed down,and the area of arable land has increased.From the overall forecast results,it can be known that if the policy is implemented in place,it will have a better impact on land use and can avoid drastic reduction of arable land area.Land use structure will tend to be stable.This study is helpful to understand the land use change and driving mechanism of pingshan County,and find out the existing problems of the regional land use structure,so as to provide scientific basis for the land use and management of pingshan county.