Simulation And Prediction Of Land Use Time And Space Change In Meng Lian County Based On MAS-LCM Coupling Model

With the expansion of the scope of human activities, especially the irrational human activities lead to land use change,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of land system.In order to better guide the human behavior for changing the unreasonable land use activities, the simulation prediction research of land use is of very important. Menglian County artificial economic landscape rapid grew over the past decade, replacing a considerable area of Cultivated land and natural Forest, and making Menglian County land use structure and spatial layout undergone dramatic changes,which lead to more economic,social and ecological change processes. Therefore, it is necessary to simulate and predict land use change of Menglian County, in order to actively cope with problems that may arise.In this study, a large area of artificial economic landscape planting areas Menglian county as the research object,using remote sensing data, socio-economic statistical data,and investigation-interview data to analysis Menglian County Land Use Change.On this basis, using Logistic-CA-Markov model and the MAS-LCM coupled model simulate and predict of land use temporal changes in Menglian County in 2025 with the status quo Menglian County Land Use 2015 as the base year data, and analyz and compare the prediction results.The conclusion is as follows:(1) The characteristics of land use change.①Forest,Cultivated land,and Enomic landscape is given priority to Meng Lian county nearly 10 years of land use, Forest,Cultivated land,and Water area decreased in 10 years,Enomic landscape, Construction land,and Other land area increased,of which Forest area largest reducted, Enomic landscape area increased most. ②10 years Menglian County land use types flowed mainly among Forest, Cultivated land,and Enomic landscape.(2) Binary logistic regression method is used to determine the Meng Lian county land use spatio-temporal changes driving factors.ROC value of Cultivated land, Construction land, Forest,Enomic landscape,Other land,and Water are greater than 0.7,indicating that the selected slope, aspect, elevation, distance from the river, the township the number of agricultural labor, the distance from the main road,the distance from rural settlements,the distance from the town and from the distance from the county 9 factors driving around the spatial distribution suitability probability of land classes is appropriate.(3) Based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model to simulate and predict Meng Lian county land use change of time and space in 2025. ① the effectiveness of the inspection accuracy for Logistic-CA-Markov model,Kappa coefficients is 0.8598, indicating that the model simulation accuracy is high and the model can be used. ② when Meng Lian county’s the land use spatio-temporal changes simulation results in 2025 compared with the present situation of land use in 2015,the Cultivated land, Forest land and Water area decrease,Enomic landscape,Construction land and Other land area increase,especially the Enomic landscape rapid expand.A lot of rural Cultivated land and Fores is occupied in Meng Ma town,Gong Xin township and Fu Yan township of in the west of Meng Lian county,and the prediction results consistent with land use change under the influence of natural and social conditions in Menglian County Land trend.(4) Based on the MAS-LCM model to simulate and predict Meng Lian county land use change of time and space in 2025.① in MAS model building,Cultivated land, Construction land and Forest land are largely driven by the basic farmland protection areas, space control construction land use zoning and forest conservation planning three land-use policies, and Enomic landscape is the most obviously influenced by farmers planting behavior,which mainly by the inflow of Cultivated land in recent five years. Setting the agricultural sector, Land and Resources Bureau, the forestry sector and farmers four types of land-use agent,of which the agricultural sector, Land and Resources Bureau,and the forestry sector are conducted by the relevant planning rules, corresponding to select the planting behavior of Cultivated land, Construction land and Forest, and the behavior rules of farmers is conducted by agricultural Labour quantity the level of economic benefit,it determine the behavior of the Cultivated land flowing into Enomic landscape.② Meng Lian county’s the land use spatio-temporal forecasting results in 2025 compared with the present situation of land use in 2015,Enomic landscape, Cultivated land, Construction land and Other land area rise, Forest land and Water area reduce.Basic protected farmland and secondary protected Forest are protected,and Construction land is orderly development in the planning of the setting range.Land use change in space mainly in Meng Ma town,Gong Xin township,Fu Yan township and Na Yun town of in the west of Meng Lian county,and the prediction results consistent with the trend of land use time and space change under the influence of natural and social conditions in Menglian County land use and the main body behavior choice of Meng Lian county,and more consistent with the actual situation.(5) Two kinds of model simulation and prediction results contrast.As MAS-LCM coupled model simulation and prediction results compareing with the Logistic-CA-Markov model simulation and prediction consequences,Cultivated land and Forest area enhance, Construction land and Enomic landscape area reduce, Other land and Water area is almost the same.The planting area of Enomic landscape growth trends slowly Under MAS-LCM coupled model forecast,and Construction land is also steady and orderly development, especially Basic protected farmland and secondary protected Forest avoid occupied by Enomic landscape and Construction land,which shows MAS-LCM coupled model’s simulation and prediction is more conducive to Menglian County land sustainable development than Logistic-CA-Markov model’s simulation and prediction.At the same time also suggests that based on Logistic-CA-Markov model, through setting the basic farmland protection areas, land use space control construction zoning and forest setting of protected areas, especially the behavior rules to select Enomic landscape of farmers is conducted by agricultural Labour quantity the level of economic benefit,the land use simulation and prediction results are more in line with the realities of Menglian County.Under the land use in the natural environment and social economic background, MAS-LCM coupled model in order to in line with land use change natural, social, and cultural characteristics,clarifes the land use’s reaction mechanism subject to environmental,scientific analysises of land use main body behavior, add the effecting factors of land use from the behavior of the humanities into the model, these play an important role on improving model’s simulation and prediction scientific results.