Research On Land Use Change And Prediction In Urban Renewal Area

Urban renewal is the regulatory mechanism of urban development and land use change always affects the development of cities.With the transformation from outward expansion to internal renewal,it is of great practical significance to study the rule of land use change in urban renewal area.This paper takes Yuzhong district in Chongqing as an example,using logistic regression analysis to reveal the relationship between land use change and its influencing factors in urban renewal area.The rule of land use change under the driving mechanism is studied by transition probability matrix.Based on the results,CLUE-S model is constructed to simulate the change of land use in Yuzhong district from 2008 to 2015 and the land use change of Yuzhong district in 2020 is predicted under the four scenarios of natural development,planning guidance,project-oriented and public service.The main conclusions are as follows:1 The driving mechanism of land use change in urban renewal area.The factors of land use change in Yuzhong district show different mechanism in different stages,namely,under government-led urban renewal model the effect of building physical state on land use change is remarkable,while regional commercial value,scarce resources and other factors have great influence on land use change under the market-guided model.2 The rule of internal transition of land use structure in urban renewal area.Different land use transition show significant difference in each stage,that is,under government-led urban renewal model land use transition is more reflected in the optimization and renewal of the function of the original land.With the more and more important roles played by enterprises in urban renewal,the layout of urban commercial space and the spatial distribution of public facilities have changed obviously.With the continuous promotion of urban renewal,the increase of demolition cost has made commercial land the main renewal object,and then other land use(mainly residential land)has been renewed.3 The simulation and prediction of land use change in 2020 in urban renewal area.The accuracy of the CLUE-S model is that the Kappa value is 0.82,which can predict land use change in the future effectively.The results indicate that different scenarios have significant impact on the land use change in the urban renewal area.In baseline scenario,the rule of land use change is basically similar to that in the historical period.There are great differences between land use change under planning guidance and urban development practice.In project-oriented scenario,due to the attention to land value,commercial land increases and it distributes more centralized in spatial.Which fails to balance public service and causes commercial property vacancy.And in public service scenario,land use change is not obvious,showing obvious spatial concentration.