An Empirical Study On The Determinants Of Outbound Travel Demand In Countries(Areas) Of The World

Based on the demand theory of microeconomics and relevant research progresses,this paper discusses in depth the influence of income,relative price,exchange rate,degree of openness to foreign trade,Internet penetration rate,tourism development level,employment level,age structure and educational level on the demand of outbound travel.Based on the theory of tourism demand,this paper selects the panel data model(double logarithm linear dynamic panel data model)and the estimation method(system GMM)scientifically,and then makes use of the data of 77 countries /regions from 1995 to 2016 to analyze the demand of outbound travel Influential factors for empirical analysis.And on this basis,this paper further discusses the similarities and differences of the influencing factors of outbound travel demand in different income level economies.The results show that:(1)outbound tourism demand has a strong inertia;per capita GDP,real effective exchange rate,degree of openness to foreign trade,Internet penetration rate,tourism development level,age structure(ratio of 15~64 years old population)and education level(college enrollment rate)all have positive effect on the demand for outbound travel;(2)The relative price of international tourism and employment level(labor participation)in a country have a significant negative impact on the demand for outbound travel;(3)According to the international comparative analysis,the influencing factors of the outbound travel demand in the middle and lower income economies and that in the higher income economies have both common ground and obvious differences.The demand inertia of outbound travel in higher-income economies is relatively stronger;In middle and low-income economies,income and price factors,tourism development level and demographic characteristics(increased employment,increase in the proportion of the population aged 15~64 and improvement in education level)have a greater coefficient of influence on outbound travel demand;The degree of influence of trade openness and Internet penetration on the demand for outbound tourism in high-income economies is greater.