Empirical Study On The Relationship Of Electricity Consumption And Economic Development In Jiangxi Province

Jiangxi Province is in a critical period of economic transformation and upgrading.In order to realize the coordinated development of the power industry and economy,it is necessary to fully understand and grasp the relationship between Jiangxi's electricity consumption and economic development.At the same time,in order to ensure the development of electricity to meet the requirements of economic development,it is necessary to grasp the law of electricity as a change in consumption and reasonably forecast the electricity demand.This will not only guide the planning of electricity and electric power construction,but also rationalize the allocation of resources,and can also be used for the future.The economic and power policies provide a reference.Firstly,the current situation of electricity consumption and economic development in Jiangxi Province is analyzed.The study concluded that: From 2000 to 2015,the average economic development rate of Jiangxi Province was significantly faster than the national average;Jiangxi Province in 2015 Per capita GDP has increased by 6.57 times compared to 2000;The industrial structure of Jiangxi Province has shifted from the primary industry to the secondary industry;The electricity consumption of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in Jiangxi Province The trend is consistent with the change in output value;Compared with 2000,the electricity consumption intensity of Jiangxi Province in 2015 fell by 37.5%,which means that Jiangxi Province not only pursues the speed of economic development,but also invests heavily in the quality of economic development.Efforts have greatly increased the efficiency of electric energy utilization.Secondly,using Pearson correlation analysis,unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method,the empirical research on the relationship between Jiangxi's electricity consumption and economic development was conducted.After selecting variables and building a VAR model,an empirical analysis was carried out in two parts.The first was the aggregate analysis of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development,and the second was the study of the relationship between three levels of industrial electricity consumption and economic development.The study concluded that: The Pearson correlation coefficients of electricity use and value added in the second industry and the third industry in Jiangxi Province were 0.998 and 0.983,respectively,and the positive correlations were strong,while Pearson's electricity consumption and value added were The correlation coefficient is only 0.086,and the correlation is very weak;There is a co-integration relationship between Jiangxi's total electricity consumption and regional GDP,with an influence coefficient of 0.949606;and the second industry and the third industry use electricity There is a co-integration relationship between the added value,the impact coefficients are 1.132452 and 0.923857,respectively;and there is no cointegration relationship between the electricity consumption and the value-added of the first industry;From 2000 to 2015,there was a two-way granger causality between power consumption and regional GDP in jiangxi province.There is a two-way granger causality between electricity consumption and added value in secondary and tertiary industries.Then,based on grey theory,through the establishment of GM(1,1)model,using the raw data from 2008 to 2017 for the whole society in jiangxi province electricity consumption and GDP respectively carried on the short-term forecast for a period of five years,the prediction results show that: In the next five years,the growth of social electricity consumption in jiangxi province showed a trend of decline after rising first,which means that the change of the whole society power consumption is not stable,for the department of electric power supply plan will increase the difficulty.Therefore,the power department should timely update the big data and improve the forecasting method to improve the accuracy of power supply planning,so as to achieve the realtime and accurate power supply.In the next five years,the GDP growth of jiangxi province will show a significant downward trend,which means that the economic growth will slow down and the unemployment population will increase.Faced with this unfavorable situation,enterprises and governments should assume corresponding social responsibilities and make a positive response.For enterprises,they can reduce costs and seek new profit growth by increasing r&d investment and improving production technology.For governments,first of all should formulate relevant policies to stimulate consumption,increase the market demand,the second to efforts to create jobs,broadening the employment channels,then can make the unemployment is easier to find a new job in a short time.Finally,based on the above research findings,in order to promote the coordinated development of power and economy in Jiangxi Province,we have put forward targeted policy recommendations: optimize the industrial structure and enhance economic strength;improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation and improve the efficiency of electricity utilization;Optimize the power supply structure and promote awareness of energy conservation.