Research On Relationship Between Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth And Its Short Prediction In Hubei Province

Electricity industry is the basic public industry of economic development,and also the pillar industry of economy.All walks of life is inseparable from the full electricity supply,the electricity industry plays a vital role in sustaining economic development.With the economy entering the new normal,Hubei province is currently in the important strategic period of economic transformation and industrial structure optimization transformation.Therefore,studying the relationship between the electricity consumption demand and the regional GDP is of great significance to realize the coordinated development of economic growth and electricity industry in Hubei province.At the same time,it is of great significance to predict the electricity demand of the whole society and to accurately grasp the law of electric electricity consumption,which will be helpful for the development of electric electricity in the future.The content of this article is divided into five parts.The first part is preface.The first section mainly introduces the background,research significance and research methods of the article.The second section is a literature review,summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption,and on this basis to compare and comment,draw the author's point of view,pointing out the possible innovation in the direction of research and improvement.The second part is descriptive analysis.This part describes the status of economic development and electricity consumption in Hubei province since 1978's reform and Opening-up,and analyses the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Hubei province from two aspects of absolute index and relative index.In terms of absolute index,the economic growth of Hubei province is consistent with that of the whole society in terms of both total and growth rate.Relative index,the electricity utilization efficiency and industrial structure of Hubei Province have a big correlation.The third part is empirical research.This part makes a comprehensive study on the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Hubei province by using Granger causality test and cointegration theory,which are popular in the research variables.The research includes: the relationship between the gross domestic product of Hubei province and the consumption of the whole society,the relationship between the GDP of Hubei province and other indicators of economic growth,and the relationship between the value added and the applied electricity of the three industries in Hubei province.In the establishment of the cointegration equation,firstly,the stability test of economic growth variables and electricity consumption variables in Hubei province is carried out,and cointegration tests are carried out on the basis of the same order,and cointegration analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Hubei province,and the results of Granger causality test show that There exists one-way Granger causality between electricity consumption and GDP in Hubei province.Finally,the application of the error correction model unifies the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Hubei province and the short-term fluctuation relationship.Based on the analysis of the value added and corresponding electricity consumption of three industries in Hubei province with the same measurement method,we can conclude that there is a cointegration relationship between the added value of primary,secondary,tertiary industry and the applied electricity in Hubei province,The Granger causality test shows that there is no obvious Granger causality between the added value of primary and the amount of electricity consumed,and there is a one-way Granger causality between the added value of the second industry and the corresponding industrial electricity consumption.The fourth part is the forecast of the short-term trend of electricity consumption and economic growth in Hubei Province from 2017 to 2020.Based on the grey prediction theory,the traditional GM(1,1)is optimized by reference to the mean value inequality,and the results show that the optimized GM(1,1)has higher prediction precision and stability than the traditional model.On basis of the optimized GM(1,1),this part forecasts the electricity consumption and secondary consumption of the whole society in Hubei province from 2017 to 2020.Then combined with the cointegration and Granger relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the third part,this part forecasts the annual growth rate of secondary in Hubei province in 2020,and further discusses the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Hubei Province over the next few years.The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion.Based on the above empirical analysis results and the requirements of related industrial development plan of“The 13 th Five-year ”in Hubei Province,the paper provides some suggestions for ensuring the harmonious and steady development of economic development and power industry in Hubei Province in the future.