Reseach On Risk Sharing Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Projects

In recent years,with the rapid growth of China's economy,the urbanization process has been accelerating,and the demand for urban rail transit project construction has also increased rapidly.The public-private Partnership model plays an important role in solving government financial pressure,introducing social capital and improving the efficiency of Public service.The PPP projects in urban rail transit are numerous and complicated,and the implementation of the project involves the characteristics of politics,people's livelihood,market and other factors.In the process of its investment recovery,whether the risks existing in the project can be fully recognized,whether it can be distributed fairly and reasonably,becomes the main concern of all parties concerned.Therefore,the research on the risk sharing of urban rail transit PPP projects not only provides theoretical basis for the decision-making of participants,but also provides guidance for project contract design and negotiation practice.This paper takes the urban rail transit PPP project as the research object,and studies the factor identification evaluation and risk sharing model in the risk sharing process.Firstly,based on the definition of urban rail transit PPP project concept,construction management characteristics and risk management status,this paper puts forward the research idea and framework of risk sharing.Secondly,identify the different risk factors that may exist in each stage of the project,and guo jian risk evaluation index system and evaluation method;Then the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to evaluate the risk factors.Then,on the basis of analyzing the risk preference of different share subjects,the risk sharing game model is constructed.Finally,an empirical study was carried out on the first phase project of xi 'an metro line 9.The main research results obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)Build the risk identification and evaluation method of urban rail transit PPP project.Risk classification method based on Li will be risk factors for PPP projects of urban rail transit as macro,meso level and micro level three categories,constructed on the basis of risk identification results 11 primary index and 45 secondary indicators of the PPP project risk evaluation index system,and USES the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(ahp)to build the urban rail transit of the PPP project risk evaluation model.Can get through this model the influence degree of each risk factor ranking and the overall level of risk of the project,according to the rankings can further to get what risk factors need to be priority for risk sharing and risk management.(2)Build the risk sharing game model of urban rail transit PPP project.Through the analysis of urban rail transit the PPP project risk sharing in the body of the government and the private sector for the same risk factors of risk appetite,to project risk has carried on the preliminary share,so as to determine the risk alone or share.On this basis,constructs the bargaining game model under the condition of incomplete information,based on the analysis of the participants different specific risk sharing proportion,in addition,the two sides share proportion of risk by the respective negotiations for a risk appetite for risk and coefficient,position of asymmetric degree of influence.(3)Take the first phase project of xi 'an metro line 9 as an example.According to the risk assessment model,the overall risk assessment score of the project is 3.3128,and the project risk is moderate.Secondly,on the basis of the parties involved initially share the degree of risk appetite for risk,11 risk borne by the government independence,25 risk borne by the independent private sector,the remaining nine risk you need to share the subject to share;Finally,combining with the bargaining game model under the condition of incomplete information of risk in share,the risk of interest rate changes and the change of the rate of inflation risks,financing costs,risks,the government bear the risk ratio is 57.85%,63.77%,55.59%,the risk of the government to more than 55%,but for passenger flow situation,the private sector to assume the risk of 63.30%.In view of the above research results,the paper puts forward risk prevention Suggestions from the perspective of government and private sector,and provides theoretical reference for the risk sharing of urban rail transit PPP project.