Research On Key Risk Identification And Risk Sharing Of Urban Rail Transit Projects Under PPP Mode

With the advancement of urban rail transit construction,domestic enthusiasm for popularizing and applying the PPP model has risen.However,the characteristics of rail transit projects under the PPP model,such as large investment,large number of entities,and long period,have increased the risk in the implementation process.In order to promote the long-term sustainable development of PPP projects,it is particularly important to carry out scientific risk management.In order to make risk management more efficient and risk sharing more scientific,we should consider identifying key risks and designing sharing programs as our top priorities.Firstly,the paper comprehensively identifies and classifies risks through literature induction and case analysis,and obtains some of the main risks that urban rail transit projects will face under the PPP model,and introduces the risk assessment method of triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process;The classification of risk sharing and non-shared risk is based on risk preference.In combination with the situation in which the participating parties do not know about each other's information,the game model is constructed from the perspective of incomplete information,and the sub-game refining Nash equilibrium point is found and the proportion of sharing is found.It is related to the loss factor of negotiation and the proportion and probability of risk transfer.Finally,the case analysis of the first phase of the project of Q Metro Line was conducted to obtain the key risk and risk sharing ratio of the specific case.This paper provides a more scientific risk assessment method for urban rail transit projects under the PPP model,and builds a risk-sharing game theory model from the perspective of incomplete information.It not only supplements the deficiency of existing research in theory,but also provides a decision-making basis for the risk management of rail transit projects in PPP mode.