Research On Social Investor's Earning Risk Of PPP Mode In Quasi-operational Infrastructure

Since the reform and opening up,with the development of urbanization in China,the demand for infrastructure has gradually increased,but China's infrastructure construction has all relied on financial investment,which has put the public sector under great pressure,and the emergence of the PPP model has greatly eased this dilemma.In recent years,with the deepening of the PPP model,its development in the field of quasi-operational infrastructure has also gradually received much attention.The quasi-operating infrastructure PPP project has its own economic benefits,but its economic efficiency is not high enough to fully recover it's cost which need the government to inject certain compensation.The typical quasi-operational infrastructure PPP projects include rail transit,hall pavilions and so on.The quasi-operating infrastructure PPP project requires deep cooperation between the public and private parties,which not only solves the problem of public sector's funding shortage,but also broadens the investment area of social capital.However,it is precisely because of its low economic efficiency that social capital has low enthusiasm for participation.To this end,in order to raise awareness of the social capital's earning risks for such projects,and to suggest countermeasures for social capital in practice,this paper examines the earning risk of social investors of PPP mode in quasi-operational infrastructure.Firstly,the thesis concludes the relevant literature on the social capital side of the operating infrastructure PPP project,and sorts out relevant concepts of the PPP model,related theory of project differentiation,theory of related risk of earnings,and other relevant theories,laid the theoretical foundation for the study of thesis.Then,based on the case analysis method and literature analysis method,29 observation factors were identified,including 26 factors affecting the social capital's earning risk of PPP mode in quasi-operational infrastructure project which include six major aspects of risks that are government-side risks,legal policy risks,financing risks,construction risks,operational risks and environmental risks,and also including 3 risk factors of social capital side themselves.Secondly,the paper briefly introduces the structural equation model and its application steps,compares it with other methods,analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of it,and discusses the rationality of the selection of it for research.And then,construct a theoretical model of SEM of the social capital's earning risks of quasi-operating infrastructure PPP projects.Based on the theoretical model,the survey questionnaire was designed to collect sample data.Reliability and validity of the collected data were analyzed with SPSS software.The reliability and rationality of the sample data were verified,and the unreasonable place was corrected.Then use AMOS software to import the data into the theoretical model,fit the structural equation model and correct it based on the fitting results.The three risk categories with the greatest impact were government risks,financing risks and operational risks.The six key influencing factors affecting are the government approval delays risk,government-side credit risk,government decision-making mistake risk,financing program rationality risks,operational management capability risks,and policy change risks.Finally,based on the principle of risk sharing of PPP projects and the calculated values of the impact effects obtained from the model operation,this paper make suggestions for social capital in these six levels of influence and the major influence factors in the secondary influence factors.