The Empirical Study Of Relationship Between Urbanization And Real Estate Supply And Demand

In recent years,it is Urbanization process and the real estate market that are most concerned about in macroeconomic policies, and Urbanization has been carried out steadily. At the end of 2014, our country’s urbanization rate reached 54.77 percent which is still in the stage of rapid progress. On the other hand, China’s real estate market, despite a late start,but since the market-oriented reforms in 1998, it led to the joint development of cement, construction, furniture and other industries at the same time through the development of its own in less than 20 years, which provided a great impetusChina has being steadily rapid economic growth in recent years. It can be seen from the previous research scholars that urbanization and the real estate market have a mutual interaction on each other. The advance of urbanization has brought an increase in urban population, which can directly increase demand for real estate.And then demographic changes urbanization advancing process will have an important impact on the structure of demand for real estate. At the same time, the impact on the property supply which accumulation of factors of production that urbanization brings can not be ignored.While the development of real estate market will help promote the urbanization process,and the prosperity of the real estate market will improve the quality of urbanization development.Besides, the increase in the supply of real estate will also create many job opportunities for the urban population to better promote the further development of the urbanization process.In 18th Party Congress, the Central Committee came up with the new urbanization development direction,which put more emphasis on people-centered development philosophy in the process of urbanization. So, It will take long time to solve the problem in the future that how to promote the development and prosperity of the real estate in the new urbanization strategy. And this issue is of great historical and realistic significance for social development.In this paper,30 provinces and autonomous regions are selected as the research object. It explores what effects country and the regional urbanization process brought about on the real estate supply and demand by constructing dynamic panel data model.For index selection, this article describes urbanization from two angles which are the urbanization of the population and urbanization of land described respectly. Sales area of commercial housing and commercial housing completion area are used to measure the demand and supply of real estate. Such variables like population age structure, the commercial housing sales price, urban residents disposable income and real estate industry practitioners are chozen as control variables. In addition, the introduction of policy factors in the model result in more comprehensive study results; In selecting data, this paper select panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2014 to analysis; About the method, this paper analyzes both by economic theory to explore the theory of the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on the real estate supply and demand, but also by the unit root test, cointegration test, building a dynamic panel data model and GMM estimation method and a series of tests and empirical model estimation method for quantitative analysis. The results show:(1) There are lagging behind the demand and supply of real estate in our country,the current real estate supply and demand are significantly affected by the early real estate supply and demand.(2) Promotion in the urbanization process in China can promote the supply and demand of China’s real estate market, and there are regional differences in this effect.The intensity of urbanization response on real estate market supply and demand gradually increase ranging from eastern, central to western regions.(3) By further introducing factors at the policy level,namely expenditure and FDI in the real estate supply and demand model,it is found that adding policy factors did not change the positive influence brought by urbanization on supply and demand in the real estate market as well as the gradual obvious influence degree of the East, middle and west of China. And on the condition that fiscal policy accounted for less than a certain threshold, this stimulating effect of urbanization on the demand for real estate will be further enhanced.Furthermor,when FDI accounted for less than a certain threshold, the urbanization role in promoting the supply of real estate will be further strengthened.