Research On Financial Risk Of Financial Listed Companies Based On VaR

With the gradual deepening of the process of economic globalization and the increasingly close economic relations among countries,the conflicts and contradictions between them have become more obvious.Therefore,the stability of economic development is particularly important for the development of all countries.Under this background,the scale and level of development of the financial industry are becoming the primary indicator of the level of economic development of a country and play an increasingly important role in the national economy and social development.Therefore,from the perspective of preventing and responding to financial risks,it is particularly important to carry out research on the risks of the financial industry,especially for financial listed companies that can reflect the level of China's financial development.The financial risk of the financial enterprise is one of the risks that the company faces,and it can intuitively reflect the potential problems of the financial enterprise.Helping the researcher and the person in charge of the company to find the problem in time,and carrying out relevant research have important practical significance.In the first chapter of this article,by reviewing the literature on financial risks both at home and abroad,the research viewpoints,research methods,and research results proposed by scholars in the field of research in recent years are summarized and summarized,and the process of research and development of financial risks is systematically studied.The generalization.The second chapter analyzes the development environment,risk sources and characteristics of listed companies in China's financial industry,and reviews the risk composition of listed companies in the financial industry.In the third chapter,based on the combination of research literature and related theories,with reference to part of the research model,three different calculation methods for calculating VaR values are compared and the historical simulation method is finally determined.In the selection of samples,42 financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen were selected as the research objects.The 2016 annual report data of listed companies was used as the basis for calculation,and 11 financial indicators and usages of each sample company were calculated.The historical simulation method calculates the VaR value and constructs two kinds of financial risk assessment systems for listed companies.The model construction part adopts factor analysis method and Logistic regression method,and calculates the index values of the financial risk assessment index system sample that is integrated into VaR and the sample index value of the financial risk assessment index system that does not include VaR.The change in the overall ranking of listed companies in both calculation modes.Logistic regression method was used to test the accuracy of the two financial early-warning models with different parameter index systems,so as to judge the rationality and effectiveness of the model.The fourth chapter combines the results of research to provide listed companies in the financial industry with countermeasures and recommendations for dealing with risks.This article believes that the adoption of VaR-based financial risk forecasting model can objectively and comprehensively reflect the listed company's financial risk.Compared with the traditional research methods,this study can realize the prediction of financial risks of listed companies in the financial industry.Provide a higher recognition rate.VaR-based financial risk model of listed companies in the financial industry to a certain extent provides a reference for corporate decision makers to identify,evaluate,and prevent financial risks of listed companies,providing market investors with a practical basis for investment decisions,but also for the market Regulators provide direction for market management.