Research On The Measurement Of China's Real Estate Bubble

With the proposed New Urbanization Plan in our country,a large number of population flock to the city will stimulate the demand of urban real estate,making the real estate prices have been rising rapidly.To some extent,the blind rise in housing prices will create a real estate bubble.It is threatening the healthy operation of the national economy of a city or even a country.Therefore,only a correct understanding of the real estate bubble problems can make real estate development have a better layout of the national economy,which is very important in practical aspect in the current economic environment in China.After reading a large amount of papers and searching for related information,this paper redefines the concept of real estate bubble in the conclusion of predecessors: In the current market structure,all the real estate with investment attributes which would be transformed into selling value is the real estate bubble.This thesis illustrates the causes and harms about real estate bubble.At the same time,this paper analyzes the phenomenon of real estate overheating,speculation of developers and real estate bubble from the perspective of real estate supply and demand.In addition,irrational expectations of investors,excessive speculation,and excessive supports of financial institutions,underdeveloped house leasing market and the asymmetric information indirectly lead to the formation of the bubble.Secondly,this thesis constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of real estate bubble by comparing the real estate bubble indicators and screening with objective reality.The weight of index is determined by objectively weighted Coefficient of Variation method and subjective weighted Analytic Hierarchy Process method,and the index is scored comprehensively to establish a comprehensive evaluation model of real estate bubble based on portfolio weighting.Finally,through the analysis of real estate data in Tianjin,we received the composite index of Tianjin real estate bubble measure,and drawn corresponding conclusions and relevant suggestions.This thesis hope that,the real estate developers and financial institutions can pay sufficient attention to the real estate bubble,and national policy-making departments and tax departments can refer to improve their working performance.